辽宁港口城市经济韧性评价及影响因素分析

Evaluating Economic Resilience of Port Cities in Liaoning Province and Analyzing Its Influencing Factors

经济韧性是城市可持续发展的重要物质基础。以辽宁港口城市为例,基于港-城关系构建港口城市经济韧性评价指标体系,运用熵值法构建模型,评估2010-2019年间辽宁6个沿海港口城市的经济韧性,通过灰色关联分析法分析港口城市经济韧性的主要影响因素,探究未来辽宁港口城市的经济发展路径。结果显示:2010-2019年间辽宁6个港口城市的经济韧性整体呈波动上升趋势;从各港城此间经济韧性指数的平均值来看,大连城市经济韧性好于其他5个城市;依据此间城市经济韧性指数的标准差变化看,港城经济韧性的差异程度先增大后减小而又回升,呈现“N”字形变化趋势;从各港城此间经济韧性指数的标准差比较来看,丹东的经济韧性表现较为稳定,葫芦岛的表现波动较大。主要影响因素分析表明未来辽宁港口城市经济发展应增强其内生动力。

Economic resilience is an important material basis for urban sustainable development.Taking the port cities in Liaoning as an example,based on the relation of port-city,we build the evaluation index system on economic resilience,and use entropy method to build model,in order to evaluate economic resilience of the six coastal port cities in Liaoning from 2010 to 2019.In addition,we use grey correlation analysis method analysis the main influence factors on economic resilience of these cities,so that we can explore the future economic development path of these cities in Liaoning.The results show that the change on economic resilience of these cities in Liaoning presents a wavy upward trend from 2010 to 2019.From the average economic resilience index of these cities,Dalian is better than the other five cities.According to the change of standard deviation of urban economic resilience index,we find during this period,the difference on economic resilience among these cities increases first,then decreases and rises again,showing a"N"shape change trend.From the comparison of standard deviation of economic resilience index among these cities,Dandong is relatively stable,while Huludao fluctuates greatly.The analysis of the main influencing factors showed that the economic development of port cities in Liaoning should strengthen its endogenous power in the future.