从通胀目标制到平均通胀目标制:理论、实践与反思

From Inflation Targeting to Average Inflation Targeting: Theory, Practice and Reflections

2020年8月和2021年7月美联储和欧洲央行相继转向新的货币政策框架,这是对当前全球流行的通胀目标制实践的拓展和延伸。理论上,最优通胀率应为负或为零,但由于零利率下界等现实因素,各国都设定了大于零的通胀目标(2%标准),采用兼顾其他目标的弹性通胀目标制。尽管通胀目标制获得巨大成功,但越来越兼顾其他目标及更灵活的安排呈现出明显的相机抉择特征。基于理论溯源和早期的实践分析表明,美联储的平均通胀目标制实质上是临时价格水平目标制,欧洲央行的新框架实质上是价格水平目标制。与简单工具规则相比,将通胀目标制作为最优货币政策目标规则的政策效果并不稳健。探索能够更好解释现实的简单稳健货币规则,仍是未来理论研究和政策实践的重要方向,这对健全中国现代货币政策框架具有重要的启示性意义。

FED and ECB adopted new monetary framework in August 2020 and July 2021 respectively, which are the extensions to the inflation targeting(IT) practices currently popularized around the world. Though the theoretical optimal inflation rate should be negative or zero, all countries adopt above zero inflation target(2% criteria) and flexible IT targeting other objectives due to realistic factors such as ZLB. Though IT has achieved great success, paying more other objectives and more flexibilities make the IT more and more discretion. The average inflation targeting adopted by FED is temporary pricing level targeting in essence and ECB’s new framework is pricing level targeting. Compared with simple tool rules, the policy effect of inflation target as the optimal monetary policy target rule is not stable. Exploring simple and robust rule suitable to the reality is the future area for the theory researching and policy making, which is also valuable to improve China’s monetary policy framework.