政府合作推动下的城市群一体化经济增长效应——基于长江三角洲的实证研究

The Economic Growth Effect of Urban Agglomeration Integration Promoted by Government Cooperation:An Empirical Study Based on the Yangtze River Delta

随着城市群战略地位的提升,以及一体化区域扩容呈现加速态势,城市群一体化经济增长效应评估成为一个值得深入探讨的科学问题。为此,将长江三角洲城市经济协调会扩容作为准自然实验,基于1990—2017年城市尺度面板数据,采用双重差分模型,多角度评估政府合作推动的城市群一体化经济增长效应,并采用中介效应模型、空间计量模型等,分析一体化影响城市经济增长的机制。研究发现:城市群一体化能够显著促进经济增长,且这一效应具有较强稳健性。多角度分析进一步验证了城市群一体化经济增长效应的异质性,主要表现为城市规模越大,促进效应越大,融入一体化时间越长,促进效应越强,不同批次之间效应的下降态势,以及区域之间浙江>安徽>江苏的效应差异。市场一体化深化、要素集聚能力提升是一体化促进经济增长的重要机制,但空间溢出效应“距离衰减”、产业关联“核心—边缘”格局是效应异质性的重要因素,这对推动城市群一体化区域扩容,助力城市群协调发展等具有重要意义。

Based on the panel data of prefecture level from 1990 to 2017,this paper regards the enlargement of the Yangtze River Delta Urban Economic Coordination Committee as a quasi-natural experiment,based on the difference-in-differences model to estimate the effects of integration regional enlargement on economic growth.On this basis,the mediation model and spatial econometric model are used to explore the mechanism of integration regional enlargement affecting economic growth.The main conclusions are as follows:Regional integration can significantly promote urban economic growth,which is verified by multiple robustness tests.From the perspective of different city sizes,the effects show significant difference of“Matthew effect”.From the perspective of dynamic effects,the longer the city integrates into the integrated area,the stronger the promotion effect.From the perspective of different batches,the effect presents a significant downward trend.From the perspective of different regions,Zhejiang province is the largest,and Anhui province is the second,but Jiangsu province is not significant.The market integration and the enhancement of factor agglomeration ability brought about by joining the Yangtze River Delta Urban Economic Coordination Committee are important mechanisms for promoting economic growth,but the decline of spatial spillover effects and the“core-periphery”differences in industrial linkages lead to the heterogeneity of the economic growth effect.This is of great significance for promoting the urban agglomeration regional expansion,deepening the urban agglomeration integration level,accelerating the urban agglomeration coordinated development.