“一带一路”沿线国家能源强度降低的关键因素识别及实现路径研究

Identification and Realization Path of Key Factors for ReducingEnergy Intensity in Countries along the Belt and Road

提高能源利用效率,降低能源强度是推动绿色“一带一路”建设的必由之路。在理论分析的基础上,基于2000—2019年“一带一路”沿线国家面板数据,融合LMDI分解法和计量模型开展实证研究。结果表明:(1)国家能源强度是“一带一路”沿线国家整体能源强度降低的关键,国别增长结构抑制了整体能源强度的降低;(2)沿线国家能源相对价格的提高在整体上降低了国家能源强度水平,且存在区域禀赋差异,东亚和太平洋地区、中东和北非地区、能源进口国家能源相对价格提升的能源强度降低效应更显著;(3)空间互动方面,能源相对价格提高在降低本国能源强度的同时会提升邻国能源强度;(4)数字化水平调节方面,数字化基础设施建设强化了能源相对价格提升的能源强度降低效应。

In 2013,China proposed to build the New Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road,collectively known as the Belt and Road Initiative.The Belt and Road Initiative aims to promote economic policy coordination among countries and carry out greater and deeper regional cooperation.Countries can jointly build an open and inclusive regional economic cooperation framework to achieve diversified,autonomous,balanced and sustainable development.At present,energy cooperation has become a key area of the Belt and Road Initiative.Improving energy efficiency and reducing energy intensity is the way to promote the green economic construction of the Belt and Road Initiative.Therefore,this study explored the key factors influencing changes in energy intensity in countries along the Belt and Road.In addition,this study also analyzed the ways to achieve energy efficiency improvement,and enriched the research on the driving factors of energy intensity from the perspective of country.This paper conducted an empirical analysis based on panel data from countries along the Belt and Road from 2000 to 2019.Firstly,country-based LMDI approach was used to decompose the overall energy intensity of countries along the Belt and Road into two factors:national energy intensity and national growth structure.Compared with industry-based LMDI approach,country-based LMDI approach can more effectively clarify the state responsibility along the Belt and Road for reducing overall energy intensity.Secondly,in order to explain the reasons for the change of national energy intensity,this paper constructed the energy price measurement index of countries along the Belt and Road.Then,according to the cost production function,the effect of reducing national energy intensity due to the increase in the relative energy price was discussed.Finally,this paper further discussed the impact of regional endowment difference,spatial interaction relationship,and digital level on the relationship between relative energy price and national energy intensity in countries along the Belt and Road.The results showed that:(1)National energy intensity was the key to reducing the overall energy intensity of countries along the Belt and Road,while the country s growth structure inhibited the reduction of overall energy intensity;(2)The increase in the relative energy price of countries along the Belt and Road had reduced the national energy intensity level as a whole,but there were regional and endowment differences.The energy intensity reduction effects of the relative energy price increase in East Asia and the Pacific,the Middle East and North Africa,and energy-importing countries were more significant;(3)In terms of spatial interaction,the increase of relative energy price promoted the energy intensity of neighboring countries while reducing the energy intensity of their own countries;(4)In terms of moderating effect of digital level,the construction of digital infrastructure had strengthened the energy intensity reduction effect of relative energy price increase.This study provides theoretical support for the realization logic of green development on the Belt and Road.And it renders decision-making references for regional economic cooperation and energy governance in countries along the Belt and Road.In addition,this study provides ideas for China to deepen and lead the green development of the Belt and Road.