我国风能、太阳能资源预估现状及展望

Projection and Outlook of Future Wind Energy and Solar Energy Resources in China

可再生能源的开发利用,是减缓“气候变化”的有效途径。“双碳”目标,对我国风电和光伏发电的发展规划提出了更高的要求。在此背景下,开展风能、太阳能资源变化预估可为区域级能源发展规划和电力运行提供科学指导。然而,目前的研究还缺乏高时空分辨率结果的支持,导致精细化预估尚未开展,并且已有的结果之间存在较大的差异和不确定性,难以给出较为精确的结论。本文综述了“双碳”背景下,风能、太阳能资源预估的重要性、技术瓶颈、最新结果及挑战。在此基础上,提出加强风能、太阳能资源的短期服务能力、中长期服务保障,进一步提高预估技术水平、协调资源开发利用的季节性和区域性差异,以助力实现“双碳”愿景。

The development and utilization of renewable energy is an effective way to mitigate climate change.Carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals put forward higher demand for the development planning of wind power and photovoltaic power generation in China.In this context,it is important to project the future changes of wind and solar resources,which can provide a scientific basis for the formulation of policies and power operation at local scale.However,currently,due to the limitation of high spatial-temporal resolution simulations,the refined projection of wind and solar resources has not been carried out.In addition,large differences and uncertainties exist in the previous studies,making it difficult to give a more accurate conclusion.This paper summarizes the importance of wind and solar resources projection,technical bottlenecks,the latest results and challenges,and analyzed its possible impact and uncertainty.To better support the short-term,medium and long-term climate service goals of the carbon peak and carbon neutrality.On this basis,it is proposed to strengthen the short-term service capacity and medium-and long-term service guarantee of wind and solar energy resources,further improve the estimated technical level,and coordinate the seasonal and regional differences in resource development and utilization,so as to better help realize the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.