回流劳动力的就业转换特征及影响因素——基于七省的调查

An Analysis on the Return Migrants'Employment Conversion and Its Determinants:Insights from a Survey of Seven Provinces in China

基于一项七个省的抽样调查数据,考察了回流劳动力的就业转换和职业流向特征,运用logistic回归模型对其影响因素进行了分析。研究发现:(1)回流者的就业转换呈现“两低一高”的特征,即低行业匹配度、低职业匹配度和高失业率,且在东、中、西部省份呈现相应的梯度递减(递增)特点。(2)就业转换从第二产业转向第一、第三产业,非农职业转向个体经营户和农业活动的特征明显。(3)职业流向具有明显的垂直流向特征,且以向下流动为主。(4)行业匹配和职业流向受多元因素的影响,初中学历的回流者具有更高的行业匹配度,低学历者职业向下流动的风险更高;主动回流、家庭经济的支持对行业匹配和职业流动具有积极的影响;务工时长和务工距离对职业向上流动具有显著的负向作用;回流地非农产业发展对行业匹配有积极的影响,且对中部省份回流者的职业向下流动具有阻抗效应。研究结果反映了回流地对人力资本使用效率不高,但专用性人力资本积累使中西部省份的回流者在制造业就业市场拥有明显的竞争优势。本研究对于引导劳动力回流,助力回流地经济发展具有重要的政策启示意义。

Based on the sample survey data of seven provinces in China,this paper investigated the characteristics of employment conversion and occupational mobility of return migrants,and analyzed its influencing factors by using logistic regression model.The results suggest that the occupational changes of return migrants before and after return shows the characteristics of“twolow and one high”, that is, low industry matching degree, low occupation matching degree andhigh unemployment rate,and presents the corresponding gradient decreasing( increasing) characteristicsin the eastern province, the central provinces, the western provinces. The researchalso reveals that an obvious employment conversion of returnees before and after the return, thatis, from the secondary industry to the primary industry and the tertiary industry, from non - agriculturalemployment to self - employed households and agricultural production. In the meantime,it was found that the occupational mobility direction had obvious vertical mobility,andmainly downward mobility. From the perspective of influencing factors, Industry matching andoccupational mobility direction are affected by multiple factors. Compared with the returneeswith high school education or above, returnees with junior middle school education have higherindustry matching degree,and those with low education have higher risk of career downwardmobility,and voluntary return and family economic support had a positive impact on industrymatching,occupational parallel mobility and upward mobility. Meanwhile,positive developmentof non - agricultural industries in migrants' sending areas had a positive effect on industrymatching,and had an impedance effect on the downward occupational mobility of returnees inCentral China. The results show that the overall level of sending areas on the utilization rate ofhuman capital is not high,but in the field of manufacturing industry, special human capital enabledreturnees to have obvious competitive advantages in the labor market of manufacturingindustry in hometown area,but this phenomenon is not obvious in other industries. The results ofthis paper have great value in policy practice for guiding the return of labor force and promotingthe economic development of the return area.