基于复合系统仿真的山东省装备制造业绿色转型发展研究

Research on Green Transformation Development of Equipment Manufacturing Industry in Shandong Province

装备制造业绿色发展已是制造业转型的重要方向之一。依据经济-环境-能源-科技复合系统,利用系统动力学方法构建山东省装备制造业绿色转型仿真模型,将与装备制造业绿色发展相关要素置于系统内分析。选取2010—2017年历史数据检验模型有效性,并结合山东省装备制造业发展现状设置5种情景。通过对不同情景2018—2030年模型仿真,结果表明:按照目前山东省装备制造业发展模式下经济总产值逐年上升,能源消耗增大,生态环境恶化程度不断加剧;采取经济速率调整可加快经济发展,但环境污染只得到缓解,生态问题依然突出;增大环境保护力度能有效降低环境污染存量,但经济效益仍有较大提升空间;促进技术研发虽有利于产业发展,但生态环境效应提升潜力较大;而要素集成能在较大程度上实现经济和环境二者协同发展。

The green development of the equipment manufacturing industry is one of the important directions for the transformation of the manufacturing industry.According to the economic-environment-energy-technology composite system,using the system dynamics method to build a simulation model for the green transformation of shandong equipment manufacturing industry,and put the elements related to the green development of the equipment manufacturing industry into the system for analysis.Select the historical data from 2010 to 2017 to test the validity of the model,and set up 5 scenarios based on the development status of the equipment manufacturing industry in Shandong Province.Through model simulation of different scenarios from 2018 to 2030,the result shows:According to the current development model of equipment manufacturing industry in Shandong Province;economic speed adjustment can speed up economic development,but environmental pollution can only be alleviated,and ecological problems are still prominent;increasing environmental protection efforts can effectively reduce the stock of environmental pollution,but there is still a lot of room for improvement in economic benefits;although promoting technology research and development is beneficial to industrial development,the potential for improvement of ecological and environmental effects is great;but the integration of elements can achieve the coordinated development of the economy and the environment to a greater extent.