基于演化博弈的区域综合能源市场零售侧竞争策略选择方法

Evolutionary Game Based Competition Strategy Selection Method for Retail Side of Regional Integrated Energy Market

随着热力、天然气等多种形式能源的加入,参与综合能源市场交易的决策主体类型愈发复杂多样。然而,常用的最优化理论与大多数经典博弈理论已无法解决其日益复杂的多主体行为决策问题。针对综合能源零售商如何选择策略来竞争售能,采用新兴的演化博弈理论,在综合能源竞争型代理模式下,建立了零售侧市场演化博弈模型。该模型以有限理性与获取有限信息的综合能源零售商为研究对象,通过理论推导得出了其最优竞争策略的范围。采用基于向前Euler公式的迭代算法进行求解,算例分析了综合能源零售商的演化结果、演化时间及其影响因素,验证了演化博弈理论在市场主体行为分析中的有效性,并为政府的政策制定和综合能源市场主体的行为决策提供了建议。

With the integration of various energy such as heat and natural gas,the types of decision-making entities participating in the integrated energy market transactions are becoming more and more complex and diverse.However,the traditional optimization theory and most classical game theories can no longer solve the above increasingly complex behavioral decision-making problems of multiple entities.Aiming at how integrated energy retailers select strategies to compete in retailing energy sales,using the emerging evolutionary game theory,an evolutionary game model of retail-side market is established under the integrated energy competitive agency model,which takes the integrated energy retailers with limited rationality and information access as the research objects.Through theoretical derivation,the ranges of optimal competition strategies are obtained.Solved by the iterative algorithm based on the forward Euler formula,the case analyzes the evolutionary results,evolutionary time of integrated energy retailers and their influencing factors.It verifies the effectiveness of the evolutionary game theory in the behavioral analysis of market entities,and provides suggestions for the policy formulation of government and the behavioral decision-making of entities in the integrated energy market.