中国不同类型地区人口时空分异特征——基于“五普”至“七普”分县人口数据的分析

Detecting spatiotemporal variation of population in different types of regions in China based on the census data of 2000,2010 and 2020

开展新形势下中国不同类型地区人口集疏变化研究对新型城镇化和乡村振兴战略的实施具有重要参考意义。论文以县域为基本单元,基于2000—2020年三次人口普查数据,对全国以及城市群、原连片特困区和边境区等不同类型地区的人口时空演变特征进行了研究。结果表明:(1)中国人口分布东密西疏的格局并未发生根本改变,2020年胡焕庸线东南半壁和西北半壁人口比值仍约为94∶6。目前中国分县人口已经进入负增长阶段,2010—2020年超过一半的县域人口负增长。(2)2000—2020年城市群人口增长1.53亿人,2020年占全国人口的比重接近90%,是承载中国人口的主体区域。2010—2020年,19个城市群中珠三角和长三角人口增长最为显著,而哈长和辽中南城市群人口负增长。(3)原连片特困地区在2000—2020年人口持续减少,20年间人口减少了1100万人以上。新疆南疆三地州和西藏区2个少数民族聚居区人口增长明显,2010—2020年人口增幅超过15%。(4)边境地区县域2000—2020年人口基本保持稳定,但2010—2020年人口集聚度和人口密度略微下降。其中,东北和北部边境地区人口下降明显,2010—2020年减幅均超过了15%。新时期新型城镇化、乡村振兴战略和国防安全建设要参考区域人口增减的现实情况,对不同类型地区要统筹谋划、分类施策。

In the new era,research on China’s population aggregation and decentralization in different types of regions is of great reference value for the implementation of strategies for the new-type urbanization and rural revitalization.Therefore,we studied the spatiotemporal variations of population in China and its different types of regions(for example,urban agglomerations,original contiguous destitute areas,and border areas)at the county level based on the data of three censuses from 2000 to 2020.The results show that:1)The pattern of China’s population distribution,which is dense in the east and sparse in the west,had not fundamentally changed,and the population ratio of the southeast side to the northwest side of the Hu line is still 94∶6.Furthermore,the Chinese population had entered a period of negative growth,and more than half of the counties had negative population growth from 2010 to 2020.2)The urban agglomeration areas were the main areas carrying China’s population,accounting for nearly 90%of China’s total population in 2020.From 2010 to 2020,among the 19 urban agglomerations of China,the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta had the most significant population growth,while the Harbin-Changchun and central-southern Liaoning urban agglomerations experienced negative population growth.3)The population of original contiguous destitute areas dropped continuously from 2000 to 2020,and the total population decreased by more than 11 million during the 20 years.But the population growth of three prefectures of southern Xinjiang and the Tibet area inhabited by ethnic minorities exceeded 15%from 2010 to 2020.4)The population of border areas had been basically stable,but the population agglomeration index and population density decreased slightly from 2000 to 2020.In particular,the population of the northeastern and northern border areas declined significantly,both with a decrease of 15%from 2010 to 2020.The implications of this study are that the government should attach greater importance to the actual status of population change for carrying out targeted policies—such as the new-type of urbanization,rural revitalization,and national defense and security—under the new situation.