城—城流动人口统计口径的改进与新口径下的流动特征和影响因素

Improvement in the statistical criteria of intercity floating population and their mobility features and determinants under the new criteria

城—城流动人口是影响中国人口流动格局演变和城镇化高质量发展的一个关键因素。论文基于2017年流动人口动态监测调查数据,对城—城流动人口的统计口径进行改进,并分析了新口径下城—城流动人口的规模、社会经济特征、空间分布格局和人口城—城流动的影响因素。研究表明:(1)新口径下城—城流动人口占全部流动人口的42.92%,远高于原口径的18.85%。(2)与原口径相比,新口径下城—城流动人口具有性别比高,已婚者比例高,首次流动时更年轻,流动年限更长,人力资本、社会经济地位以及定居意愿更低的特征。(3)与农村户籍相比,城镇户籍城—城流动人口的流动距离更远、流入城市等级更高,后续流动仍然高度集聚在沿海发达城市,而农村户籍流动人口继续在沿海城市间流动的同时,出现明显的向中西部回流的态势。(4)模型结果显示,年轻、教育年限长、已婚、从事商业服务业、流动时间长、家庭收入高的人口更容易城—城流动,但家属随迁和子女数量的增加会抑制人口城—城流动;首次流入城市较低的工资水平和绿化覆盖程度、较高的人均GDP和财政支出都有效地推动了人口的城—城流动。论文纠正了迄今城—城流动人口统计口径存在的一些问题以及由此造成的对城—城流动人口认识的偏差,推进了对人口城—城流动这一薄弱领域的研究。

Intercity floating population is a key factor that affects the evolution of migration and mobility patterns and the high-quality development of urbanization in China.Based on the data from the 2017 China migrant population dynamic monitoring survey,this study improved the statistical criteria of intercity floating population,and analyzed their sizes,socioeconomic characteristics,spatial distribution,and the determinants and mechanism of their intercity mobility under the new criteria.The results show that:1)The intercity floating population by the new criteria accounted for 42.92%of the total floating population,much higher than the18.85%by the original criteria.2)Compared with those by the original criteria,members of the intercity floating population by the new caliber had a slightly higher proportion of males and married people,a younger age at the time of first migration,a longer migration duration,a lower level of education,income,housing condition,social security,occupational status,and willingness to settle down in the current city.3)Compared with rural-urban migrants,the urban-urban migrants were more capable of long-distance migration,and were more likely to have migration experiences in cities at high levels in the urban hierarchy and migrate to coastal prosperous cities in their subsequent migration.In contrast,rural-urban migrants who came to coastal areas were more likely to return to central and western areas.4)The characteristics of individual migrants,their mobility and families,and the first destination cities of migration had significant impacts on the intercity migration of the floating population.The probability of subsequent migration between cities was higher among business and service sector workers and people with younger age and higher educational level,being married,having longer migration duration and higher family income,but lower for those with accompanying family members and an increased number of children.The characteristics of the city also affected the subsequent urban-urban mobility,with lower average wage level and green space coverage and higher per capita GDP and financial expenditure promoting subsequent migration of the floating population in cities.These results corrected some problems in the statistical criteria for intercity floating population and misunderstandings on them based on such criteria,and promoted research of this relatively weak field.