数字经济时代先进制造业发展的机会窗口

The Opportunity Window for the Development of Advanced Manufacturing Industry in the Era of Digital Economy

目前学界关于数字经济时代先进制造业发展的认知中,存在一定程度“唯技术论”的狭隘性与“蜂拥而上”的泛化性,这将不利于中国先进制造业抓住数字经济机会窗口以实现跨越式发展。本文将数字经济时代先进制造业发展置于中国式现代化的长期视野与政府宏观政策的近中期视角内,创新性地提出新时代以来中国式现代化路径下先进制造业的生产要素、产业规模结构、品质、道路、市场定位与生态环境等六类特征;并聚焦颠覆式技术创新、“新基建”与“一带一路”“RCEP”市场需求、创新型与红利型制度分析,揭示了数字经济时代先进制造业发展的系统化关键性机会窗口。在秉持技术、需求与政策的三维度分析框架以及国内外历史与现实的两层面逻辑思路基础上,深刻总结了中国成就“制造业大国”经验与迈向“制造业强国”心得以及美国抓住第二次工业革命机会窗口成功经验,提出发展数字经济时代重点技术、开发先进制造业终端与中端两个市场、提升先进制造业制度创新政策效果等核心对策建议。先进制造业是中国式现代化发展的实体经济根基,数字经济是先进制造业发展的机会窗口,本文的研究为贯彻党的二十大报告中提出的“制造强国”战略目标实现,进一步厘清了理论演进逻辑与阐明了实践发展路径。

At present, there is a certain degree of narrowness of “Technologism” and generalization of “Crowding up” in the cognition of the academic circles about the development of advanced manufacturing industry in the era of digital economy, which will not be conducive to China’s advanced manufacturing industry to seize the opportunity window of digital economy to achieve leapfrog development.This paper puts the development of advanced manufacturing industry in the digital economy era within the long-term vision of Chinese path to modernization and the short-term and medium-term perspective of the government’s macro policies, and innovatively proposes six characteristics of advanced manufacturing industry, including production factors, industrial scale structure, quality, path, market positioning and ecological environment, under the path of Chinese modernization since the new era.It also focuses on disruptive technological innovation, the market demand of “New Infrastructure”, “The Belt and Road Initiative”&“RCEP”,and innovative & dividend based institutional analysis, revealing a systematic key opportunity window for the development of advanced manufacturing in the digital economy era.On the basis of adhering to the three-dimensional analytical framework of technology, demand and policy as well as the two-level logical thinking of history and reality at home and abroad, this paper deeply summarizes the experience of China’s achievements as a “Large manufacturing country”and the experience of moving towards a “Powerful manufacturing country”, as well as the successful experience of the United States in seizing the opportunity window of the second industrial revolution, and puts forward core countermeasures and suggestions including developing key technologies in the era of digital economy, developing advanced manufacturing terminal and mid-end markets and improving the effect of institutional innovation policies in advanced manufacturing industry. The advanced manufacturing industry is the foundation of the real economy for the development of Chinese path to modernization. The digital economy is the opportunity window for the development of the advanced manufacturing industry. This study further clarifies the logic of theoretical evolution and the path of practical development for the implementation of the strategic goal of a “Powerful manufacturing country” proposed in the report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China.