货币当局的目标锚定及其前瞻性决策规则

Target Anchoring of the Monetary Authority and Forward-Looking Decision-making Rules

本文将前瞻性泰勒规则推广至随机状态,构建了两种目标锚定情景下的前瞻性决策规则,其能显性刻画未来多期前瞻信息的预期变动对当前名义利率调整的具体影响。对我国短期名义利率的拟合表明,货币当局对通胀和产出分别有长期锚定目标和短期锚定目标,且分别盯住通胀的长期趋势和产出的短时变动。当前名义利率调整前瞻性地虑及了未来通胀预期和经济不确定预期的影响:当未来预期通胀上升(下降)时,货币当局倾向于调低(提高)当前名义利率,当前扩张(紧缩)性货币政策可能是未来高通胀(低通胀)的原因,且倾向于放大后者的波动性;当未来经济的不确定预期下降(上升)时,货币当局倾向于调低(调高)当前名义利率,未来较低(较高)的经济不确定预期为当前货币扩张(紧缩)提供了缓冲空间。

The paper extends the forward-looking Taylor rule to the random state,and constructs the forward-looking decision-making rules under two target anchoring scenarios,which can explicitly measure the quantitative impact of the expected changes of future multi-period forward-looking information on the current nominal interest rate adjustments.The model fitting shows that the monetary authority closely pegs on the long-term trend of inflation and the short-run change of output when adjusting nominal interest rates.The current nominal interest rate adjustments reflects the impacts of future inflations and economic uncertainty expectations in a forward-looking manner.When the expected inflation rises(falls)in the future,the monetary authority tends to lower(increase)the current nominal interest rate.The current expansionary(contractionary)monetary policy may be the cause of future high(low)inflation,and tends to amplify the cyclical fluctuation of future inflations.When the uncertain expectations of future economy decrease(increase),the monetary authority tends to lower(increase)the current nominal interest rate.Lower(higher)economic uncertainty expectations in the future provide a buffer for current monetary expansion(contraction).