中国粮食虚拟耕地资源国际贸易影响因素评价

Study on the influencing factors of international trade of grain virtual cultivated land resources in China

以中国与18个粮食贸易伙伴国2002—2020年跨国面板数据为样本,采用国际贸易理论和扩展的引力模型,对影响中国粮食虚拟耕地资源国际贸易因素进行实证检验。研究结果表明:农业劳动力资源禀赋、人口规模、人均收入绝对差异(不显著)、汇率、距离、WTO对中国粮食虚拟耕地资源国际贸易有促进影响,而农业用地资源禀赋、水资源禀赋、技术水平(不显著)、农业产业规模差距、经济发展水平差异、市场价格水平、“一带一路”倡议对虚拟耕地资源流动存在负面影响。最后,针对实证检验结果得出了政策启示。

Based on the cross-border panel data of China and 18 grain trading partner countries from 2002 to 2020,the factors affecting the international trade of grain virtual cultivated land resources in China were empirically tested using international trade theory and extended gravity model.The results show that agricultural labor resource endowment,population size,absolute difference of per capita income(not significant),exchange rate,distance and WTO have promoting effects on international trade of grain virtual cultivated land resources in China.However,agricultural land resource endowment,water resource endowment,technical level(not significant),agricultural industry scale gap,economic development level difference,market price level and"Belt and Road"initiative have negative effects on the flow of virtual cultivated land resource.Finally,the empirical test results providethepolicy implications.