改革开放以来中国入境旅游周期波动的阶段性变迁分析

Analysis on the Phased Changes of the Cyclical Fluctuation of China’s Inbound Tourism since the Reform and Opening-Up

入境旅游是我国现代旅游产业体系的关键组成部分,正确认识入境旅游周期波动规律,对于准确把握我国入境旅游发展态势、制定合理产业发展政策、促进入境旅游市场稳定快速增长具有重要意义。通过运用HP滤波和马尔科夫区制转移模型,对改革开放以来我国入境旅游周期进行波动测度与阶段性变迁分析的结果表明,我国入境旅游在研究期内表现出总量不断攀升但增速波动起伏的发展态势,在其增速动态变化过程中存在低速增长、中速增长和高速增长三种区制状态,并在“低速增长区制”和“高速增长区制”表现出更强的稳定性和持续性;我国入境旅游人次增长率在“低速增长区制”“中速增长区制”和“高速增长区制”之间存在着往复的阶段性变迁情况,且“高速增长区制”和“低速增长区制”将通过“中速增长区制”实现“软着陆”和“稳扩张”。从发展趋势来看,2005年以后,我国入境旅游一直处于低速收缩状态,且未来维系低速推进的可能性较大。最后,为扭转低迷的入境旅游市场并推动我国入境旅游业的逆势复苏,提出了相应的政策建议。

Inbound tourism is a key component of China’s modern tourism industry system. Correctly understanding the fluctuation law of inbound tourism cycle is of great significance to accurately grasp the development trend of inbound tourism in China, formulate reasonable industrial development policies, and promote the stable and rapid growth of the inbound tourism market. This paper employs HP filter and Markov regime switching model to measure the fluctuation and analyze the periodic changes of China’s inbound tourism cycle since the reform and opening up. The results show that during the study period, China’s inbound tourism displays the development trend of rising total volume but fluctuating growth rate, that there are three regional states of low-speed growth, medium speed growth and high speed growth in the speed increase dynamic changing process, and that stronger stability and sustainability can be seen in the“ low-speed growth regime” and the“high-speed growth regime”. The growth rate of inbound tourist arrivals in China has periodic reciprocating changes between the“low-speed growth regime”, the“medium-speed growth regime”and the“high-speed growth regime”, and the“high-speed growth regime”and the“low-speed growth regime”will achieve“soft landing”and“stable expansion”through the“medium-speed growth regime”. From the perspective of development trend, China’s inbound tourism has been in a low-speed contraction state since 2005, and it is more likely to continue to maintain a low-speed promotion in the future.Finally, the corresponding development policies are proposed to reverse the sluggish inbound tourism market and promote the recovery of China’s inbound tourism industry.