日本新一轮汇率干预:效果、风险及启示

Japan’s New Round of Exchange Rate Intervention: Effects, Risks and Implications

日元作为传统避险资产,却在2022年意外大幅贬值超30%。基于日元恶性贬值、日美长期利差扩大、日元贬值刺激出口的效果大打折扣的大背景,日本通过口头干预、汇率检查、外储干预等手段开启了新一轮汇率干预,但效果却不尽如人意。本文认为,日美经济基本面分化、货币政策背离、日本陷入巨额贸易逆差等是汇率干预效果不及预期的主因。日本新一轮汇率干预对我国的启示有:一是汇率干预仍将纳入央行“政策工具包”,避免人民币汇率短期内大起大落;二是汇率干预不具有长期效应,应进一步完善人民币汇率市场化形成机制;三是积极运用宏观审慎管理政策工具,为人民币汇率稳定保驾护航;四是加强国际经济政策沟通与协调,减少政策变化对汇市的冲击。

The Japanese yen, a traditional safe-haven asset, unexpectedly depreciated by more than 30 percent in 2022. Japan launched a fresh round of exchange market intervention in response to the yen’s depreciation as well as the greatly reduced stimulus to exports from that depreciation and a widening spread between long-term interest rates in Japan and the United States. Japan employed jawboning, rate checks, foreign currency reserve intervention and other means, but the overall result was disappointing. This paper contends that the divergence of economic fundamentals between Japan and the U.S., the divergence of monetary policies and Japan’s huge trade deficit are the main reasons for the disappointing results from exchange rate intervention. For China, the lessons learned from Japan’s latest round of rate intervention were as follows: First, exchange rate intervention should still be considered as part of the "policy toolkit" of the central bank so that short-term renminbi exchange rate fluctuations can be avoided. Second, exchange rate intervention has no long-term effect, so the market-oriented renminbi exchange rate mechanism needs to be further improved. Third, macro-prudential policy tools should be actively used to ensure the stability of the renminbi’s exchange rate. Fourth, there is a need for strengthening international economic policy communication and coordination to reduce shocks to the foreign exchange market from policy changes.