南昌市耕地利用变化碳排放时空演变特征及影响因素分析

Research on the Influencing Factors of Carbon Emissions of Cultivated Land Use Change Based on Geo-Detector Model

为揭示南昌市耕地利用变化碳排放时空演变特征,基于地学信息图谱和碳排放系数方法,测算近20年耕地利用变化的碳排放强度,并采用空间分析工具和地理探测器模型分析南昌市耕地利用变化碳排放时空演变特征及影响因素。结果表明:1990—2020年耕地面积呈减少趋势,耕地面积共减少了564.93 km^(2),30年间耕地利用变化碳排放呈先上升后下降态势,均以碳源形式呈现。1990—2020年耕地利用变化碳排放空间集聚性较强,热点区主要由南昌市中心城区向周边区域蔓延,冷点区主要分布在东南方向和东北方向。人口密度是耕地利用变化碳排放的主控因子,各影响因子之间的交互作用以非线性增强为主,说明耕地利用变化碳排放时空演变特征是多因子共同作用的结果。

In order to reveal the Spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of carbon emissions of cultivated land utilization in Nanchang City,based on geological information mapping and carbon emission coefficient methods,the carbon emission intensity of cultivated land utilization changes in the past 20 years is calculated,and the spatial analysis tools and geographical detector models analyze the Spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of carbon emissions of cultivated land utilization changes in Nanchang City.The results showed that from 1990 to 2020,the cultivated land area showed a decreasing trend,the cultivated land area decreased by 564.93 km^(2),and the carbon emissions of the change of cultivated land utilization in the past 30 years showed a trend of first rising and then decreasing,all in the form of carbon sources.From 1990 to 2020,the spatial agglomeration of carbon emissions from the change of cultivated land utilization was strong,and the hot spot area mainly spread from the downtown area of Nanchang to the surrounding area,and the cold spot area was mainly distributed in the southeast and northeast directions.Population density is the main control factor of carbon emissions of cultivated land utilization changes,and the interaction between each influencing factor is mainly nonlinear enhancement,indicating that the Spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of carbon emissions of cultivated land utilization changes are the result of the joint action of multiple factors.