货币政策与财政政策不同组合下的财政支出效应研究

Research on Fiscal Expenditure Effect under Different Combinations of Monetary Policy and Fiscal

本文采用马尔可夫区制转换模型识别货币、财政政策规则,并将其嵌入DSGE模型以测度财政支出效应。研究发现:(1)中国货币、财政政策随着经济发展呈现不同组合模式;(2)在不同政策组合下,财政支出效应存在显著差异;(3)金融危机时期,AM-AF组合下财政支出对产出和消费产生积极作用,但也导致通胀、债务短期内持续上涨,不及PM-PF与PM-AF的组合效果。

This paper uses Markov regime switching model to identify monetary and fiscal policy rules,and embeds them into DSGE model to measure fiscal expenditure effect.The research finds that:(1)China's monetary and fiscal policies show different combination patterns with economic development;(2)under different policy combinations,there are signifi-cant differences in fiscal expenditure effects;(3)during the financial crisis,the fiscal expenditure under the AM-AF com-bination has a positive effect on output and consumption,but it also leads to the sustained rise of inflation and debt in the short term,which is not as effective as the combination of PM-PF and PM-AF.