中国货币政策调控模式演变及政策效应——基于MS-DSGE模型的研究

Evolution of China's Monetary Policy Regulation Mode and Policy Effect——Research Based on MS-DSGE

本文构建包含马尔可夫区制转移特征的动态随机一般均衡模型,研究中国货币政策调控模式演变进程,并对不同区制下货币政策规则的调控效应进行研究。结果发现:在经济低波动的平稳时期,央行倾向于采用同时关注通胀和产出缺口的稳定泰勒规则;在经济高波动的危机时期,央行对通胀缺口的关注不足,而更关注实际产出缺口。此外,相较非稳定泰勒规则,稳定泰勒规则的调控效应更加持久、有效,有利于实现经济增长和通胀稳定的双重目标。

This paper constructs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)model with Markov regime switching characteristics,studies the evolution of China's monetary policy regulation mode,and studies the regulatory effects of monetary policy rules under different regimes.The results show that in the stable period of low economic fluctuation,the central bank tends to adopt the stable Taylor rule,which pays attention to inflation and output gaps at the same time;dur-ing the crisis period of high economic volatility,the central bank pays less attention to the inflation gap and more attention to the real output gap.In addition,compared with the unstable Taylor rule,the regulation effect of the stable Taylor rule is more lasting and effective,which is conducive to achieving the dual goals of economic growth and inflation stability.