制造业中心对农村收入贫困的辐射作用及其演变(1988-2018)

The Radiation Effect of Manufacturing Centers on Rural Income Poverty and Its Evolution from 1988 to 2018

利用跨度30年的中国家庭收入调查数据(CHIP)分析了改革开放以来工业化对农村减贫的影响。结果发现,地区第一产业增加值与农村收入贫困不相关,2013年后各绝对贫困指标与非农产业增加值也不再相关,而后者同相对贫困发生率存在显著负相关关系。1988-2007年,广东、上海与农户所在地的工业化发展均促进了农村地区减贫,但2013年后工业化的减贫效应大幅减弱,这也是我国扶贫政策从开发式扶贫向精准扶贫转变的主要原因。随着长三角、珠三角地区劳动密集型的中低端制造业有序向中西部转移,本省工业化发展对农户摆脱相对贫困愈加重要。

The present paper analyzes the impact of industrialization on rural poverty reduction since the reform and opening up using data about the China Household Income Survey(CHIP)in the recent 30 years.The result finds that the added value of regional primary industries is not correlated with rural income poverty,and the absolute poverty indicators are no longer correlated with the added value of non-agricultural industries after 2013,while the latter was significantly negatively correlated with the relative poverty incidence.The industrialization in Guangdong,Shanghai and the rural areas from 1988 to 2007 had contributed to rural poverty reduction,but the effect has significantly reduced since 2013,which accounts for China's policy change from developmental to targeted poverty alleviation.With the orderly transfer of labor-intensive middle and low-end manufacturing industries from the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta to the central and western regions,the provincial industrialization development has become increasingly important for rural residents to get rid of relative poverty.