基于种植现状的安吉白茶霜冻害气象指数精准预报技术

Accurate prediction technique of meteorological index relevant to frost damage for Anji white tea based on current planting zone

开展安吉白茶霜冻害气象指数精准预报对提高茶叶生产防灾避灾能力具有重要意义。基于安吉县24个自动气象站观测资料,采用回归分析+残差内插方法构建了安吉县日最低气温空间分析模型;结合中期天气预报客观产品、DEM高程数据和高分2号(GF-2)卫星遥感数据提取安吉白茶种植分布现状,采用GIS技术研发了安吉白茶霜冻害气象指数精准预报技术方法。结果表明:安吉县日最低气温空间分析模型绝对误差平均值为0.5℃,模拟效果较好;安吉白茶霜冻害气象指数预报时效达15 d,空间分辨率为30 m;基于种植现状的安吉白茶霜冻害气象指数预估,2021年3月23日全县80.64%茶园有霜冻害发生,其中1级(轻度)、2级(中度)灾害面积分别为9291.96和62.7 hm^(2),各占全县茶园面积的80.10%和0.54%,预估结果与实际灾情基本一致。研究成果可为茶叶气象精细服务提供技术支撑。

An accurate prediction of meteorological index relevant to frost damage for Anji white tea is of great significance to enhance the disaster precaution ability during tea production.Based on the meteorological data from 24 automatic weather stations in Anji County,a spatial analysis model of daily minimum temperature was established by combining regression analysis with residual interpolation method.A prediction method targeting at meteorological index relevant to frost damage for Anji white tea was developed by using GIS technology,taking advantage of the objective products of medium-range weather forecast,as well as DEM elevation data and the planting zone information extracted from GF-2 satellite monitoring.The results showed the simulation effect of spatial analysis model was good,with an absolute error value of daily minimum temperature of 0.5℃across the county.The effectiveness of meteorological index forecast of frost damage reached 15 days and the spatial resolution was 30 m.Based on the meteorological index of frost damage of Anji white tea,80.64%of tea gardens in Anji County were estimated to have frost damage on March 23,2021.The affected area at Level 1(mild)and 2(moderate)damage was 9291.96 and 62.7 hm^(2),accounting for 80.10%and 0.54%of the county’s total area of tea plantation,respectively.The predictions were generally consistent with the field investigation,suggesting that the method developed here would provide technical supports to fine meteorological service of tea production.