我国高中阶段毛入学率预测方法及对2035年毛入学率的预测

Prediction Method of Gross Enrollment Rate of Senior High School and the Prediction of Gross Enrollment Rate in 2035

高中阶段毛入学率可以反映出我国高中教育是否普及,能够为教育部门调控高中阶段的教育资源配置和国家的教育财政远期规划提供科学依据和数据支撑。采用非线性模拟法对2035年高中阶段毛入学率进行预测显示,到2035年,我国高中阶段毛入学率将达到97%以上,基本可以实现全面普及高中教育的目标。

Gross enrollment rate of high schools can reflect whether senior high school education is popularized.It can provide scientific reference and data support for the education department to regulate the allocation of education resources in senior high school and the long-term national planning of education finance.Forecast of the gross enrollment rate of senior high schools in 2035 shows that till 2035,the gross enrollment rate of senior high schools in China will reach more than 97%,and comprehensive popularization of the target of senior high school education can be basically achieved.