碳排放权交易试点政策能否促进绿色经济增长

Can the Pilot Policy of Carbon Emissions Trading Promote Green Economic Growth?

基于2005—2018年中国30个省份的面板数据,将碳排放权交易试点政策视作准自然实验,采用SBM-GML方法构造全域GML指数来表征绿色经济增长,并使用双重差分法就碳排放权交易试点政策对绿色经济增长的影响进行实证考察。研究发现:碳排放权交易试点政策显著促进了绿色经济增长;异质性分析表明碳交易政策在我国东、中、西部地区存在明显差异,东西部地区政策效果显著,而在中部地区无显著影响;进一步的机制分析研究发现,碳排放权交易试点政策通过加大环境政策力度和绿色技术创新促进了绿色经济增长。

Based on the panel data of 30 Chinese provinces from 2005-2018,this paper treats the carbon emissions trading pilot policy as a quasi-natural experiment and uses the SBM-GML method to construct a region-wide GML index to characterize the green economic growth,and empirically examines the impact of carbon emissions trading pilot policy on green economic growth by means of the double difference method.The research results firstly show that carbon emissions trading pilot policies significantly contribute to green economic growth.Secondly,heterogeneity analysis shows that carbon trading policies have significant variability in the eastern,central and western regions of China,with significant policy effects in the eastern and western regions and no significant effects in the central region.Thirdly,further mechanism analysis reveals that the carbon trading pilot policy has promoted green economic growth through environmental policy strength and green technological innovation.