中国省域碳达峰梯次划分与差异化排放路径——基于碳排放与经济发展双重视角的考察

Tiered Division of Peak Carbon Emissions and Differentiated Emission Paths among Provinces in China Based on the Dual Perspectives of Carbon Emissions and Economic Development

中国既要在2030年前实现碳达峰,也要在2035年基本实现社会主义现代化。中国政府迫切需要做好碳达峰顶层设计,以此统筹各地区梯次有序地协同实现碳达峰与现代化双目标。鉴于此,运用碳排放驱动因素分解方法与经济增长理论构建中国省域差异化碳达峰路径逻辑分析架构,借助MK趋势分析、蒙特卡洛模拟等方法,采用省际宏观经济数据对中国省域碳达峰梯次划分与差异化排放路径进行对比分析,可以发现:第一,根据碳排放与经济发展双维度多指标综合研判,各地区实现碳达峰目标难易程度不同,时间有先后。基于此,中国内地(除西藏外)30个省域可被划分为基本实现、提前实现、较提前实现、准时实现、可能推迟实现5个碳达峰梯次。第二,相较于生产侧碳排放数据,基于消费侧碳排放数据的政策设计,既有利于收敛区域间能源消费总量与人均GDP演化路径,也有助于在碳排放总量峰值降低的前提下,拓宽能源消费总量阈值,助力经济增长速度进一步提升。第三,强化绿色低碳发展能力建设,完善“碳排放强约束强激励、高质量经济增长”发展模式,是顺利实现碳达峰与现代化双目标的关键。展望未来,中国政府应遵循“谁消费、谁负责”的原则,加快建立健全碳排放统计核算体系,并将绿色低碳发展能力建设作为省域差异化碳达峰路径相关政策措施的重要内容,提升适配区域绿色低碳发展能力的经济增速阈值,促使经济增长对碳排放脱钩,推进碳达峰与现代化双目标的实现。

Since China is to achieve peak carbon emissions by 2030 and basically realize socialist modernization by 2035,Chinese government urgently needs to improve the top-level design of peak carbon emissions,so as to guide all regions to achieve the dual goals of peak carbon dioxide emissions and socialist modernization in an orderly and collaborative manner.In view of this,this paper combines the decomposition method of carbon emission drivers and economic growth theory to construct a logical analysis framework for China's provincial differentiated carbon emissions.With the help of MK trend analysis,Monte Carlo simulation and other methods,the paper conducts a comparative analysis on tiered peak carbon emission and differentiated emission paths among provinces based on their respective macroeconomic data.The analysis reveals that:first,multi-indicators of the two dimensions of carbon emissions and economic determine that different regions may realize carbon peak targets with different levels of difficulty and different lengths of time for completion;the thirty provinces on China's mainland(excluding Tibet)can therefore be categorized into 5 tiers in terms of peak carbon emissions:basic realization,realization in advance,relative realization in advance,realization on time,and possible delay;second,consumption side carbon emission accounting,rather than production side carbon emission accounting,facilitates the convergence of the evolution path of total energy consumption and per capital GDP among regions,and broadens the threshold of total energy consumption in the context of a reduced peak of total carbon emissions,so as to further accelerate economic growth;third,the key to successfully achieving the dual goals lies in strengthening the capacity for green and low-carbon development,and adopting the development model of"a strong incentive and constraints mechanism for carbon emission in pursuit of high-quality economic growth".In the future,the Chinese government should follow the principle of"who consumes,who assumes responsibility"accelerate the establishment and improvement of the carbon emission statistical accounting system,and take the construction of green and low carbon development capacity as an important part of the relevant policies of the provincial paths to carbon peak,so as to improve the economic growth threshold that is suitable for the regional green and low carbon development capacity,promote the decoupling of economic growth from carbon emissions,and facilitate the coordinated realization of the dual goals of carbon peak and modernization.