基于AHP-突变理论组合模型的地质灾害危险性评价——以河北平山县为例

Geological hazard assessment based on the models of AHP,catastrophe theory and their combination:A case study in Pingshan County of Hebei Province

河北平山县受地形地貌、地质构造和生态环境等因素的影响,崩滑流等地质灾害频发。选取地形起伏度、坡度、坡向、河网密度、断裂带密度、地层岩性、NDVI、土地利用类型及地质灾害点密度9个评价因子,用AHP和突变理论分别求各评价因子权重,并按最小信息熵权法结合,建立AHP-突变理论组合模型并应用,对比基于三种方法的平山县地质灾害危险性评价结果。结果表明:组合模型的评价结果精度更高,符合该区地质灾害发育特征;组合模型法将主客观结合,综合考虑因子的影响,评价结果可靠。该研究为平山县及类似地区地质灾害危险性评价提供一种新的尝试和方法。

Pingshan County,Hebei was affected by topography,geological structure,ecological environment and other factors,geological disasters such as landslides occurred frequently.Nine evaluation factors including topographic relief,slope,aspect,river network density,fault zone density,stratigraphic lithology,NDVI,land use type and geological disaster point density were selected.The weights of each evaluation factor were calculated by AHP and catastrophe theory,and the combination model of AHP and catastrophe theory was established and applied according to the minimum information entropy weight method.The results of geological disaster risk assessment in Pingshan County based on three methods were compared.The results show that the evaluation results of the combined model have higher accuracy and are in line with the development characteristics of geological disasters in this area.Combined model method combines subjective and objective,considering the influence of factors,the evaluation results are reliable.This study provides a new attempt and method for geological disaster risk assessment in Pingshan County and similar areas.