浙江省水产品冷链物流需求预测

Forecast of Cold Chain Logistics Demand for Aquatic Products in Zhejiang Province

根据浙江省农产品冷链物流的发展现状确定预测指标,从传统的GM(1,1)、新信息GM(1,1)、新陈代谢GM(1,1)选取合适的模型对2010—2019年浙江省水产品的冷链物流需求量进行趋势预测及精度检验。结果表明,新陈代谢GM(1,1)优于其他两种模型,利用该模型得到的预测结果对浙江省水产品冷链物流相关的建设投入具有可靠的参考价值。

Based on the current development situation of cold chain logistics for agricultural products in Zhejiang Province,prediction indicators are determined,and appropriate models are selected from traditional GM(1,1),new information GM(1,1),and metabolism GM(1,1)to conduct trend prediction and accuracy testing on the cold chain logistics demand for aquatic products in Zhejiang Province from 2010 to 2019.The results show that the metabolic GM(1,1)model is superior to the other two models,and the prediction results obtained using this model have reliable reference value for the construction investment related to the cold chain logistics of aquatic products in Zhejiang Province.