基于信息扩散与可拓理论的城镇区域耦合风险评估方法研究

Research on coupling risk assessment method of urban area based on information diffusion and extension theory

城镇区域事故风险是城镇区域生产园区合理布局,以及区域风险动态管控的重要依据。在城镇区域生产安全事故风险数值化处理过程中,往往会遇到小样本信息不足所带来的信息不完备和指标判断时的模糊性。通过对城镇区域安全状态的分析,基于系统工程学理论方法,从反映区域内生产安全事故固有风险和安全防护系统脆弱性两个层面,提出了城镇区域耦合风险动态管控模型。在固有风险分析时,可根据模糊集的观点,将概率分布看作从事件到概率的映射,对单一样本点进行集值化的模糊数学处理,通过建立信息扩散模型,对不完备信息进行适当的信息膨胀,以弥补小样本信息不足的缺陷;在脆弱性分析时,基于可拓学理论建立了可拓脆弱性评估模型,计算评估对象与脆弱性等级的综合关联度,从而确定安全防护系统抗事故灾害冲击能力。将所建模型用于某市A区,结果表明,该城镇区域固有风险一般,安全防护脆弱性小,抵御风险能力较强,其分析结果与实际相符,为城镇区域生产安全事故风险有效管控提供了依据。

The accident risks of urban areas is the important basis for the rational layout of production parks in urban areas,as well as for the dynamic control of regional risks.In the process of numerical processing of the risk of production safety accidents in town areas,it often encounters incomplete information and ambiguity in the judgment of indicators brought by insufficient information of small samples.In this paper,through the analysis of the safety state of urban areas,based on the theoretical approach of system engineering,a coupled risk dynamic control model for urban areas is proposed from reflecting the inherent risk of production safety accidents in the region and the vulnerability of the safety protection system,that is,the“triangle”model of coupled risk in urban areas.In the inherent risk analysis,based on the view of fuzzy sets,the probability distribution is viewed as the mapping from events to probability values,a single sample point is treated by the set-valued fuzzy mathematics.The information diffusion model is established to make up for the insufficient information of small samples through proper information extension of incomplete information.In the vulnerability analysis,Using the theory of extension to establish the extension vulnerability assessment model,which can be used to calculate the comprehensive correlation between the assessment object and the vulnerability level,to determine the ability of the safety protection system to resist the impact of accidental disasters.The practical application results of an area of one city shows that the inherent risk of the urban area is generally,the safety protection vulnerability is small,the ability to resist risk is stronger,and its analysis results are consistent with the actual situation,providing a strong scientific basis for the effective control of production safety accident risk of the urban area.