基于蒙特卡罗的平行跑道进近碰撞风险分析

Collision risk analysis of parallel runway approach based on Monte Carlo

为在新的导航方式下对具有随机复杂特性的平行跑道进近碰撞风险进行评估,构建了一种面向多个对象集的进近碰撞风险仿真模拟模型。首先根据实际航迹数据获取基于性能导航(Performance Based Navigation,PBN)的实际导航性能(Actual Navigation Performance,ANP)分布规律特征,基于ANP分布函数可得进近轨迹偏离概率;随后构建了仿真轨迹模拟模型,并将国际民航组织(International Civil Aviation Organization,ICAO)的经典失误进近场景应用其中;最后针对不同非侵入区(No Transgression Zone,NTZ)宽度、不同失误场景进行仿真试验。结果表明:此模型可以快速且合理地对进近场景进行仿真模拟;在安全目标水平下的PBN导航进近可缩小NTZ宽度,从而减轻管制员工作量,提高进近运行效率。

The paper intends to quantitatively evaluate the safety risk of the parallel runway approach under the new navigation mode,to provide some objective reference for formulating new parallel operation management regulations in the future.To this end,we first analyzed the current status of parallel runway safety risk research at home and abroad,and then established an approach collision risk simulation model for multiple object sets,including aircraft,runway,navigation,and controller.Then according to the actual trajectory data of Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast(ADS-B),we obtained the distribution law of actual navigation performance,which is based on Performance-Based Navigation(PBN).In this process,we used the Grubbs test criterion and the normal fit and test method.Then,based on Monte Carlo,this study built a parallel approach trajectory simulation model,applying the International Civil Aviation Organization(ICAO)classic blunder approach scenario to it.Finally,the paper simulation experiments were carried out for different No Transgression Zone(NTZ)widths and different error scenarios.The results show that this evaluation model can be used to simulate approach scenarios quickly and reasonably well.Simulation experiments with delay/reaction times of 2-16 seconds concluded that the probability of a deviating aircraft reaching a dangerous distance from an avoiding aircraft meets the safety target level when the time is controlled to within 8.5 seconds.Meanwhile,based on the 8.5 seconds response time and the actual navigation performance distribution pattern,simulations were carried out for different NTZ widths by combining two failure scenarios:“deviation without return”and“deviation with return”.The results show that the PBN navigation approach under the safety target level can lessen the NTZ width.While the parallel runway spacing is 1036 m,the NTZ width can be reduced to a minimum of 572 m.