基于格尔木河流域的SWAT模型水文特征情景模拟研究

Scenario Simulation Research on Hydrological Characteristics of the Golmud River Basin Based on SWAT Model

以2008—2016年格尔木河流域实测径流量数据为基础,构建SWAT分布式水文模型,采用SUFI-2算法进行参数率定、验证及不确定性分析,并设置不同的气候情景(RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP6.0),预测流域2022—2050年的径流变化趋势,分析了研究区未来降水、气温的变化趋势并探究了这些气候要素对格尔木河流域径流的影响。结果表明:(1)SWAT模型在格尔木河流域径流过程的模拟中具有较好的适用性,率定期R2和ENS分别为0.84和0.73,验证期R2和ENS分别为0.74和0.70;(2)径流预测不确定性较小;(3)未来流域降水呈现增加趋势而气温降低;(4)未来时段流域径流增加显著,且降水是控制流域径流的主要因素。

Based on the measured runoff data of the Golmud River basin from 2008 to 2016,this paper constructed a SWAT dis⁃tributed hydrological model with the use of the SUFI-2 algorithm for parameter calibration,verification and uncertainty analysis,and set up different climate scenarios(RCP2.6,RCP4.5 and RCP6.0)to predict the runoff change trend of the basin from 2022 to 2050,analyzed the future precipitation and temperature change trends in the study area,and explored the impacts of these cli⁃matic factors on the runoff of the basin.The results show that:(1)the SWAT model has good applicability in the simulation of the runoff process of the basin.For the calibration period R2 and ENS are 0.84 and 0.73,respectively,and for the verification pe⁃riod R2 and ENS are 0.74 and 0.70,respectively;(2)the runoff prediction uncertainty interval is small;(3)In the future,the precipitation in the basin will increase while the temperature will decrease;(4)The runoff in the basin will increase significant⁃ly in the future time period,and precipitation is the main factor controlling the runoff in the basin.