气候与土地利用变化下黄河源区蓝绿水量的时空响应研究

Responses of Blue and Green Water to Climate Change and Landuse Change in the Source Region of the Yellow River

基于黄河源区1961—2017年逐月气象数据和两期(1980、2015年)土地利用数据集,通过设定多种变化情景,耦合SWAT(soil and water assessment tool)水文模型,探明流域内气候和土地利用变化与蓝绿水的时空响应关系。结果表明:时间上,气候变化情景下,流域内蓝水量减少了16.74 mm/a,绿水量增加了19.52 mm/a;土地利用变化情景下,流域内蓝水量减少了1.9 mm/a,绿水量增加了3.46 mm/a;在气候变化和土地利用变化共同作用下,流域内蓝水量减少了10.09 mm/a,绿水量增加了13.39 mm/a;同时,气候变化对蓝/绿水的贡献率均超过140%,是流域蓝绿水量变化的主导因素;空间上,流域内多种变化情景下,蓝/绿水量在流域内自西北至东南逐渐增加。研究结果将为黄河源区流域水资源调度计划制定提供科学参考。

Based on the monthly meteorological data from 1961—2017 and two land use data sets(1980 and 2015)in the source region of the Yellow River,the soil and water assessment tool(SWAT)hydrological model was coupled with various scenarios.The temporal and spatial responses of climate and land use change to blue-green water were investigated.The results show that,under the climate change scenario,the blue water in the basin decreased by 16.74mm/a,and the green water increased by 19.52 mm/a;under the scenario of land use change,the blue water in the basin decreased by 1.9mm/a,and the green water increased by 3.46 mm/a;under the combined effects of climate change and land use change,the blue water in the basin decreased by 10.09 mm/a,and the green water increased by 13.39mm/a;at the same time,the contribution rate of climate change to blue/green water both exceed 140%,which could be the dominant reason for the changes in the blue and green water of the basin;spatially,under various sce⁃narios,the blue/green water gradually increases from the northwest to the southeast in the basin.The research results could provide a reference for the formulation of water resources dispatching plans in the source region of the Yellow River.