计及检修计划的智能配电网运行风险等级划分定量分析方法

Quantitative Analysis Method for Operation Risk Level Classification of Intelligent Distribution Network Considering Maintenance Schedule

为解决计划检修导致配电网发生潮流越限和负荷损失等问题,提出了一种考虑检修计划的智能配电网运行风险等级划分定量分析方法 .首先,分析了检修计划对配电网安全运行的影响,从运维因素、外部因素、设备因素等三个方面建立智能配电网风险评估指标体系;其次,引入区间算法,采用了主客观混合评估方法进行指标赋权,并结合权重因子得到组合权重;再次,基于风险评估指标及其所占权重,获得了智能配电网运行风险值,并划分了运行风险等级,实现了对故障发生概率和影响后果的综合风险量化评估;最后,结合天津电网的年度运行数据,采用Ada-DT算法对其运行风险等级进行了相关分析,验证了本文所提配电网运行风险评估指标体系及等级划分方法的有效性.结果表明,所提方法可有效划分智能配电网运行风险等级,辨识配电网薄弱环节并给出针对性防控措施,为计划检修人员提供参考.

In order to solve the problems of flow out-of-limit and load loss of distribution network caused by planned maintenance,this paper proposed a quantitative analysis method of operation risk classification of intelligent distribution network considering maintenance plan.Firstly,the influence of the maintenance plan on the safe operation of the distribution network was analyzed,and the risk assessment index system of the intelligent distribution network was established from three aspects:operation and maintenance factors,external factors,equipment factors,and so on;secondly,the interval algorithm was introduced,the subjective and objective mixed evaluation method was used to weight the indicators,and the combined weights were obtained by combining the weight factors;thirdly,based on the risk assessment index and its weight,the operation risk level was divided,so as to realize the comprehensive risk quantitative evaluation of the failure probability and impact consequences;finally,combined with the annual operation data of Tianjin power grid,the Ada-DT algorithm was used to predict the risk level,and the operational risk assessment index system and classification method constructed in this paper were effectively verified.The case analysis results showed that the proposed method can effectively classify the operational risk level,identify the weak links of the distribution network and give targeted prevention and control measures,which could provide a reference for the maintenance personnel.