绿色技术创新促进地区产业升级的动态调节效应——基于经济增长目标约束的新视角

The Dynamic Moderating Effect of Green Technology Innovation to Promote Regional Industrial Upgrading:A New Perspective Based on the Constraint of Economic Growth Targets

在阐释经济增长目标约束如何影响绿色技术创新、为产业升级赋能的基础上,采用面板门槛模型及省级层面数据进行实证检验。研究结果发现:绿色技术创新对地区产业升级具有显著正向影响,且自“十三五”规划以来该积极作用表现显著;在经济增长目标调节下,绿色技术创新的产业升级效应呈现正向且边际效率递减的非线性演化特征,即较低的经济增长目标约束更有利,过高的经济增长压力会在一定程度上损失绿色技术创新的产业升级红利;经济增长目标的调节效应存在显著空间差异,现阶段东部地区需采取比中、西部地区更宽松的经济增长目标约束,中低产业升级区相比高产业升级区应实施更严格的经济增长目标约束。

Influenced by the“carbon peak and carbon neutrality”strategy,green technology innovation has become an important support for the nation to achieve the strategic goal of industrial optimization and upgrading.For how to effectively drive regional industrial upgrading,the theoretical circle has actively explored from different dimensions such as income distribution,institutional environment,technology spillover,factor endowment structure and financial science and technology,but the existing studies have generally ignored the huge impact of green technology innovation on regional industrial upgrading with the economic growth targets.In fact,the change of economic growth targets is bound to have a huge impact on many local economic decisions and behaviors,which will inevitably affect the industrial upgrading effect of green technology innovation.However up to now,few literatures have given a positive response to the internal relationship among economic growth targets,green innovation and industrial upgrading.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to systematically deconstruct the practical problem of the industrial upgrading and innovation effect of green technology innovation under the constraint of economic growth targets,so as to effectively realize the“win-win”of green technology innovation and regional industrial upgrading and development in the“14th Five-Year”period.On the basis of China's provincial panel data from 2004 to 2020,an empirical analysis is made from multiple perspectives.In order to comprehensively depict the potential impact of economic growth targets on green technology innovation to assist industrial upgrading,the study first examines the direct impact of green technology innovation on industrial upgrading and establishes a model;furthermore it uses the Hansen's panel threshold regression method to reveal the nonlinear evolution of the impact of green technology innovation on industrial upgrading with the moderation of different economic growth targets.The results show that firstly,green technology innovation has significantly driven local industrial upgrading,and this conclusion is still valid after a series of robustness and endogenous tests.Secondly,the industrial upgrading effect of green technology innovation has a significant triple threshold effect based on the constraint of economic growth targets.Under the constraint of economic growth targets,the impact of green technology innovation on industrial upgrading shows a significant positive and diminishing marginal efficiency.Thirdly,there are significant differences in the dynamic adjustment effect of economic growth targets on green technology innovation-enabled industrial upgrading.To achieve the optimal adjustment effect,the eastern region needs to adopt lower constraint of economic growth targets than the central and western regions,and the areas with high degree of industrial upgrading also needs to choose looser constraint of economic growth targets than the areas with the middle and low degrees of industrial upgrading.According to the above conclusions,the following policy implications are presented.Firstly,it is essential to further accelerate the development of green technology innovation,promote the deep integration of green technology innovation and regional industrial upgrading in various fields and links,and improve the actual efficiency of green technology innovation in driving regional industrial upgrading;secondly,at this stage,it is necessary to gradually and moderately relax the constraint of economic growth targets,and avoid the loss of industrial upgrading dividends enabled by green technology innovation due to excessively stringent economic growth targets;thirdly,different regions should choose the appropriate constraint of economic growth targets according to their own green technology innovation and industrial upgrading development reality.Compared with previous studies,this paper makes innovations in three aspects.Firstly it broadens the existing research perspective and reveals how the constraint of economic growth targets dynamically moderates the industrial upgrading effect of green technology innovation from the perspective of nonlinear dynamic evolution,so as to advance the indepth understanding of the internal logical relationship among the three.Secondly by depicting the dynamic impact effect and heterogeneous facts of the constraint of economic growth targets,it can provide decision-making reference for the government to design more targeted linkage strategies between economic growth targets and green technology innovation in promoting local industrial upgrading.