基于改进GM(1,1)的国省干线公路沥青路面使用性能预测

Asphalt Pavement Performance Prediction of National and Provincial Trunk Highways based on Improved GM(1,1)

路面使用性能随路龄的增大而减弱,路面性能衰退情况直接影响路面养护对策的选择和养护资金的投入。为了解决养护对策选择带来的资金浪费与养护后性能不佳等问题,文章以灰色系统理论为基础,通过反演法来计算衰退路龄,构建了一个改进的GM(1,1)公路沥青路面使用性能预测模型。选取宁夏国省干线公路中部分路段路面破损状况指数的数据进行分析,对数据筛选后建立GM(1,1)模型,根据选取的实测数据来反演需要预测路段的衰退路龄,代入改进的GM(1,1)模型对路面性能进行预测,验证其准确性,并与直接采用灰色预测法得到的结果进行比对。结果表明:改进GM(1,1)法与直接使用灰色预测模型相比,剔除了路面进行养护工程后路面性能指数上升的路段,不会出现预测失真的情况,预测精度较好,更符合宁夏干线公路路面使用性能的发展规律。

The service performance of pavement decreases with the increase of road age, and the deterioration of pavement performance directly affects the selection of maintenance countermeasures and the investment of maintenance funds. In order to solve the problems of waste of funds brought by the selection of maintenance countermeasures and poor performance after maintenance, this paper calculates the declining road age through the inversion method, and constructs an improved GM(1,1) model for performance prediction of asphalt pavement based on the grey system theory. The data of pavement surface condition index of some sections of national and provincial trunk highway in Ningxia are selected for analysis, and the GM(1,1) model is established after data screening. Use the selected measured data to invert the declining road age of the road section to be predicted, and substitute the improved GM(1,1) model to predict the pavement performance. The accuracy of the prediction performance is verified and compared with the results obtained by directly using the grey prediction method. The results show that compared with the direct use of grey prediction model, the improved GM(1,1) method eliminates the road section that makes the pavement performance index rise after the pavement maintenance project,and there will be no prediction distortion. The prediction accuracy is better and more in line with the development law of pavement performance of Ningxia trunk highway.