FDI的环境效应:“污染光环”抑或“污染天堂”?——基于面板ARDL-ECM模型的实证检验

The Environmental Effects of FDI:“Pollution Halo”or“Pollution Paradise”?:Empirical Test Based on Panel ARDL-ECM Model

构建ARDL-ECM模型,在全国样本和东、中、西地区样本下对外商直接投资(FDI)对碳排放的长期和短期影响进行实证检验。研究发现:(1)FDI对我国碳排放的影响具有明显的地区差异,其中东部地区支持了“污染天堂”假说,其他地区则支持了“污染光环”假说。(2)FDI对碳排放的长期效应与短期效应差异显著。(3)二氧化碳排放的规模效应显著为正,技术进步效应和结构效应显著为负,且东部地区FDI对碳排放的促进作用主要源于较大的规模效应以及较小的技术进步效应。(4)FDI是二氧化碳排放的格兰杰原因,且FDI与GDP、技术进步和产业结构互为因果关系,其他因素通过与FDI的相互作用影响碳排放,为将FDI的碳排放效应分解为规模效应、技术效应和结构效应提供了实际依据。

The ARDL-ECM model is constructed to test the long-term and short-term impacts of foreign direct investment(FDI)on carbon emissions in the national samples and samples from the eastern,central,and western regions.The results are as follows.(1)There are significant regional differences in the impact of FDI on China’s carbon emissions.The eastern region of China supports the“pollution paradise”hypothesis,while the other regions support the“pollution halo”hypothesis.(2)The long-term and short-term effects of FDI on carbon emissions are significantly different.(3)The scale effect of carbon dioxide emissions is significantly positive,while the technological progress effect and structural effect are significantly negative.In addition,the promotion effect of FDI on carbon emissions in eastern China mainly comes from the larger scale effect and the smaller technological progress effect.(4)FDI is the Granger cause of carbon dioxide emissions,and FDI has a causal relationship with GDP,technological progress,and industrial structure.Other variables affect carbon emissions through their interaction with FDI,which provides a practical basis for the decomposition of the carbon emission effect of FDI into scale effect,technological effect and structural effect.