高铁对民族地区城市高质量发展的影响——基于民族八省区地级市数据的实证研究

The Impact of High Speed Rail on the High-quality Development of Cities in Ethnic Minority Areas in China——An Empirical Study of Prefecture-Level Cities in Eight Ethnic Provinces in China

本文从投入产出效率提升的角度构建高铁影响民族地区城市高质量发展的理论框架,基于2006—2017年民族八省区地级市的高铁开通和经济社会发展数据,对高铁对民族地区城市高质量发展的整体影响及其来源进行实证检验并考察了可能的影响机制。研究显示:从整体影响及其来源看,高铁对民族地区城市高质量发展具有积极影响,且影响主要源于其对技术创新和规模经济的促进作用;从影响的异质性和动态性看,高铁对民族地区城市高质量发展的影响因城市发展基础而异,且积极效应的显现具有一定的时滞性,时滞期约为3年;从影响机制看,高铁会通过固定资产投资的投资推动、旅游产业发展的产业带动以及绿色发展的产出拉动3项机制,对民族地区城市高质量发展产生不同方向的影响。今后应进一步加强民族地区的高铁建设,有针对性地补齐高铁城市的资金和要素短板,对不同城市采取差异化的发展激励政策,以促进民族地区城市借力高铁赋能高质量发展。

From the perspective of improving input-output efficiency,this paper builds a theoretical framework for the impact of high-speed rail on the high-quality development of cities in ethnic minority areas.Based on the high-speed rail operation and economic and social development data of prefecture-level cities in eight ethnic provinces from 2006 to 2017,this paper empirically tests the overall impact of high-speed rail on the high-quality development of cities in ethnic minority areas and its sources,and investigates the possible impact mechanism.The results show that from the perspective of the overall impact and its sources,high-speed rail has a positive impact on the high-quality development of cities in minority areas,and the impact is mainly due to the promotion of technological innovation and economies of scale;from the perspective of heterogeneity and dynamics,the impact of high-speed rail on high-quality urban development in ethnic areas varies with the basis of urban development,and the positive effect has a time lag of about three years.From the perspective of influence mechanism,high-speed rail will exert different influences on the high-quality development of cities in ethnic minority areas through three mechanisms:investment promotion of fixed asset investment,industrial driving of tourism industry development and output driving of green development.In the future,it is necessary to further strengthen the construction of high-speed railway in ethnic minority areas,make up for the deficiencies of funds and factors of high-speed railway cities in a targeted way,and adopt differentiated development incentive policies for different cities,so as to promote the high-quality development of cities in ethnic minority areas by taking advantage of high-speed railway.