贸易开放的规模、技术和结构效应对碳排放的影响——基于中国省级面板数据的检验

Impact of Scale,Technology and Structure Effects of Trade Opening on Carbon Emissions:A Test based on China's Provincial Panel Data

文章选取2011—2020年中国30个省份的面板数据,在Grossman的经典理论框架下剖析贸易开放对碳排放的影响,并从规模、技术和结构效应角度分析贸易开放对碳排放的作用机制。研究发现:贸易开放对碳排放具有较强的直接促进效应;机制检验表明,贸易开放通过外商直接投资的规模效应和数字经济的技术效应增加碳排放,但能够通过产业结构合理化的结构效应抑制碳排放,但综合效应会增加碳排放;基于人均GDP的异质性检验显示,经济发展较好的地区贸易开放对碳排放的间接抑制作用无法抵消直接效应的促进作用。经济发展较弱的地区贸易开放能够通过直接效应抑制碳排放,但综合效应会增加碳排放;碳泄漏检验显示,经济发展较弱的地区存在较严重的碳泄漏问题。

The paper selects panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2020,analyzes the impact of trade openness on carbon emissions under the classical theoretical framework of Grossman,and analyzes the mechanism of trade openness on carbon emissions from the perspective of scale,technology and structural effects.Research has found that trade openness has a strong direct promoting effect on carbon emissions;Mechanism testing shows that trade openness increases carbon emissions through the scale effect of foreign direct investment and the technological effect of the digital economy,but can suppress carbon emissions through the structural effect of industrial structure rationalization,but the comprehensive effect will increase carbon emissions;The heterogeneity test based on per capita GDP shows that the indirect inhibitory effect of trade openness on carbon emissions in regions with better economic development cannot offset the promoting effect of the direct effect.Trade openness in regions with weaker economic development can suppress carbon emissions through direct effects,but increase carbon emissions through comprehensive effects;Carbon leakage testing shows that areas with weaker economic development have more serious carbon leakage problems.