经济政策不确定性对中国农产品进口的影响

Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty onChina’s Agricultural Product Import

基于经济政策不确定性和实物期权理论,研究经济政策不确定性对中国农产品进口的影响。结果表明:国内经济政策不确定性对中国农产品进口具有显著的正向影响,而国外经济政策不确定性对中国农产品进口具有显著的抑制作用;分产品类别研究发现,国外经济政策不确定性会抑制植物产品的进口,国内经济政策不确定性对各类农产品的进口均为显著正向影响;进口来源国的异质性检验结果显示,发达国家经济政策不确定性的提高将会对农产品进口产生显著的抑制作用,而发展中国家经济政策不确定性变动带来的影响并不显著。研究有助于探究国内外经济政策变动与中国农产品进口之间的关系,从而为优化中国农产品进口结构提供更加科学的政策建议。

Based on economic policy uncertainty and real option theory,this paper studies the impact of economic policy uncertainty on China’s agricultural products import.The results show that domestic economic policy uncertainty has a significant positive impact on China’s agricultural products import,while foreign economic policy uncertainty has a significant inhibition on China’s agricultural products import.The research on agricultural products shows that the uncertainty of foreign economic policies will inhibit the import of plant products,while the uncertainty of domestic economic policies has a significant positive impact on the import of various agricultural products The heterogeneity test results of import source countries show that the increase of economic policy uncertainty in developed countries will significantly inhibit the import of agricultural products,while the impact of changes in economic policy uncertainty in developing countries is not significant.The study will help to explore the relationship between domestic and foreign economic policy changes and China’s agricultural products import,so as to provide more scientific policy recommendations for optimizing China’s agricultural import structure.