全球气候变化对喜旱莲子草和莲草直胸跳甲潜在分布的影响

mpact of global climate change on potential distributions of Alternanthera philoxeroides and Agasicles hygrophila

为了探究气候变化场景下喜旱莲子草(Alternanthera philoxeroides)和莲草直胸跳甲(Agasicles hygrophila)适宜生态空间和潜在地理分布的变化,采用构建MaxEnt生态位模型的方法,模拟了当前气候下2个物种的潜在分布区以及未来气候变化对其潜在分布的影响.结果表明:当前气候条件下,与喜旱莲子草的潜在分布相比,莲草直胸跳甲的潜在分布范围较大.未来气候场景下,预计喜旱莲子草适生区面积减少10.16%,新增27.69%,其17.53%的适生区分布范围会发生变化;预计莲草直胸跳甲适生区面积减少1.02%,新增15.52%,其14.50%的适生区分布范围会发生变化.2个物种在不同未来环境变量下的适生区面积均大于当前的潜在分布面积.

To investigate the changes of suitable ecological spaces and potential distributions of Alternanthera philoxeroides and Agasicles hygrophila under climate change scenario,MaxEnt ecological niche models were constructed to simulate the potential distribution areas under the current climate and the impact of future climate change on their potential distrilution.The results show that under current climate,the potential distribution of A.hygrophila is larger than that of A.philoxeroides.Under future climate,the suitable area of A.philoxeroides is expected to decrease by 10.16%of its present suitable area and increase by 27.69%,and 17.53%of present potential distributions is expected to be changed.The suitable area of A.hygrophila is expected to decrease by 1.02%of its present suitable area and increase by 15.52%,and 14.50%of its suitable area will change.Under different future climate conditions,the areas of climatically suitable habitat for both species are larger than their current potential distributions.