基于信息扩散技术的内河通航风险评价研究

Risk assessment of inland navigation based on information diffusion technology

随着我国现代综合交通运输体系发展规划的逐步完善,内河航运也取得了长足的发展;受水文、气象、航道条件等因素影响,航运安全及其保障技术研究日益紧迫。文章以长江干线水上交通事故数据为基础,提出了一种基于信息扩散技术的内河通航风险评价方法;针对6类水上交通事故,分析并确定了不同风险等级的发生概率。研究结果表明:信息扩散理论能够将小样本数据按论域扩散成集合的形式,达到小样本信息扩散的目的;利用水上交通事故数据指标开展风险评估,可确定不同指标范围内事故发生的风险概率,为保障船舶航行安全水平、提升海事安全监管效能等提供技术支撑。

With the gradual improvement of China′s modern comprehensive transportation system development plan,considerable progress has been achieved in the inland water transport.Since the inland shipping safety and security technologies are affected by a number of factors such as hydrologic,meteorological and morphological conditions,more efforts have been made by researchers.On basis of water traffic accident data in the Yangtze River,a novel inland navigation risk assessment method based on information diffusion technology was proposed in the present study.The occurrence probability of different risk levels was calculated for typical water accidents.The results showed that the purpose of filling information gaps could be achieved through diffusing small sample data into datasets according to the universe of discourse.By means of water traffic accident data indicators,the risk probability of accidents could be determined which provides technical supports for ensuring ship navigation safety and improves the effectiveness of maritime safety regulations.