中国农村劳动力人口变动趋势研究

A Study on the Change of Chinese Rural Labor Force Population

在乡村振兴战略背景下,重新审视农村劳动力人口数量、人口结构在2021-2050年间的变化趋势,有利于从宏观上把握中国经济发展的农村劳动力人口资源,准确推进乡村振兴战略部署。以“七普”和历年人口相关数据为基础,以历年分孩次生育率和联合国总结的发展中国家生育模式经验来设置生育水平参数,以分不同时段的城镇化率变化模型设置农村人口迁出率参数,以分迁移原因的迁移数据模拟农村人口的迁移模式,采用经典的基于队列的人口预测方法,对农村劳动力人口规模、年龄结构和性别结构进行了预测。预测结果表明:农村劳动力规模持续下降,2035年、2050年分别降至2.04亿、1.20亿,仍存在农村劳动力剩余;劳动力年龄结构分布失调,将面临间断性的年龄结构断层;劳动力性别结构严重失衡,到2035年将有1910万被动不婚人群,且随着时间推移不能得到有效缓解;劳动力抚养负担持续增加,但2022-2028年仍是应对农村人口老龄化的战略机遇期。由此,在乡村振兴战略实施过程中,不仅要处理好总体上农村剩余劳动力流向城镇与局部上农村劳动力人口年龄断层的矛盾,畅通劳动力人口双向流动的渠道,也要关注农村男性受到婚姻挤压所可能引发的社会难题,以及要把握2022-2028年这个战略机遇期,为解决农村劳动力人口抚养负担过重构建制度基础。

In the context of rural revitalization strategy,re-examining the changing trend of the rural labor force population and the population structure from 2021 to 2050 is conducive to grasping the rural labor force population resources of China’s economic development from a macro perspective and promoting the strategic deployment of rural revitalization accurately.Based on the“Seventh Census”data and the relevant population data of the past years,this paper sets the fertility level parameters based on the fertility rate by childbirth rate and the fertility model experience of developing countries summarized by the United Nations.The rural population migration rate parameter were set with the change model of urbanization rate in different periods,which can simulate the migration pattern of the rural population with the migration data by migration cause,and then using the classic cohort-based population forecasting method to predict the size,age structure and gender structure of the rural labor force.The forecast results show that:the scale of the rural labor force population continues to decline to 204 million in 2035 and 120 million in 2050 respectively,and there is still a surplus of rural labor.The age structure of labor force is unbalanced,which will face intermittent age faults.The gender structure of labor force is seriously unbalanced,with 19.1 million passively unmarried people by 2035,which cannot be effectively alleviated over time.The dependency burden of labor force continues to increase,but there is still a strategic opportunity period to deal with rural aging from 2022 to 2028.Therefore,in the process of implementing the rural revitalization strategy,it is not only necessary to deal with the contradiction between the overall flow of surplus rural labor to cities and the age gap of rural labor force population in part,smoothing the channels for the two-way flow of the labor force,but also pay attention to the social problems that may be caused by the marriage squeeze of rural men,and seize the strategic opportunity period from 2022 to 2028 with aim to build an institutional foundation to solve the excessive dependency burden of rural labor force.