基于文献计量和颠覆性潜力测度的颠覆性技术识别研究--以5G技术为例

Research on Disruptive Technology Identification Method Based on Literature Measurement and Disruptive Potential Measurement:A case of 5G technology

颠覆性技术的识别对国家、产业和企业抓住战略发展机遇、形成创新竞争力具有重要意义。提出一种主客观、定性定量相结合的颠覆性技术识别框架,并以移动通信领域第5代移动通信技术(5G)为例进行实证。首先借助CiteSpace软件进行文献的可视化分析,梳理发现前沿技术研究热点。其次根据颠覆性技术的演化特征,从技术新颖性、融合性、突破性以及技术市场潜力4个维度构建技术颠覆性潜力测度指标,借助专利数据测度其颠覆性变革的潜力,并与同领域成熟度相对较高的技术进行对比,识别前沿技术的颠覆性潜力。结果表明,5G技术在移动通信领域具有较大的颠覆性潜力,验证了研究框架的科学性,为颠覆性技术的预测与识别提供了一种新思路。

The identification of disruptive technologies is of great significance for countries,industries and enterprises to seize strategic development opportunities and form innovative competitiveness.A disruptive technology identification framework is proposed which combines subjective and objective,qualitative and quantitative,and takes 5G technology in the field of mobile communication as an example.Firstly,CiteSpace software is used for visual analysis of the literature to sort out the hot spots of cutting-edge technology research.Secondly,market potential disruptive potential measure index is built from four dimensions including technical novelty,fusion,breakthrough and technology according to the evolution characteristics of disruptive technology.Patent data is used to measure the potential of its disruptive change,and compared with relatively high maturity in the field of technology to identify disruptive potential of cutting-edge technology.The results show that 5G is a potentially disruptive technology in the field of mobile communications.A new idea for the prediction and identification of disruptive technologies is provided.