模糊信息下消费者的预期消费惰性区间

Inertia Interval of Consumer’s Expected Consumption Under the Ambiguous Information

为降低消费市场的信息模糊程度、促进消费增长,引入信息精度测度信息的模糊程度,提出一个新的含随机收入的预期消费模型。基于商品预测价格与未来价格的差异获得模糊信息的精度区间,构建消费者最大–最小化预期消费模型;运用随机控制方法获得模型封闭解,分析消费者的预期消费行为;以中国、美国和法国大宗商品能源板块2020年1月1日—2021年12月31日的日收盘价、开盘价数据为样本进行对比性实证研究。结果表明:模糊信息下,消费者预期消费行为存在惰性区间;市场不确定性程度越低,商品价格稳定性越强,惰性区间越小;信息模糊程度越低,价格效应越明显;未来随机收入不确定性对预期消费行为具有促进作用;相较于国际消费市场,国内消费市场惰性区间较小。本文研究可为消费者预期消费行为研究提供一个新的分析框架,且为繁荣国内消费市场建设提供经验证据。

In order to reduce the ambiguity degree of information in the consumer market and promote consumption growth,the information accuracy was introduced to measure the ambiguity degree of information,and a new expected consumption model with random income was proposed.Based on the difference between the predicting price of the commodity and its future price,the accuracy interval of the ambiguous information was obtained,and the max-min expected consumption model of consumer was constructed.The closed solution of the model was obtained by using the stochastic control method,and the expected consumption behavior of consumers was analyzed.Finally,it comparatively did an empirical study based on sample of the daily closing and opening prices of the bulk commodity energy sectors in China,the United States and France from January 1,2020 to December 31,2021.The results show that under the ambiguous information,consumer’s expected consumption behavior exists the inertia interval.The uncertainty degree of market is lower or the stability of commodity price is stronger,the inertia interval is smaller.The ambiguity degree of information is lower,the price effect is more obvious.The uncertainty of future random income can promote the expected consumption behavior.Compared with the international consumer market,the inert range of the domestic consumer market is relatively small.This study can provide a new analytical framework for the study of consumer expected consumption behavior,and provide empirical evidence for the prosperity of domestic consumer market construction.