复杂网络视角下的世界主粮贸易格局与趋势分析

Analysis of world staple grain trade pattern and trend from the perspective of complex network

【目的】在国内国际双循环的背景下,探究世界粮食贸易的发展格局与趋势,有助于中国对国际粮食贸易市场做出合理地预判,进而更有效地保障中国粮食安全。【方法】基于1990—2020年玉米、水稻、小麦三大主粮的世界贸易数据,采用复杂网络分析方法构建世界粮食贸易网络模型,利用复杂网络相关测度指标对世界粮食贸易的格局与趋势分析。【结果】31 a间,世界粮食贸易网络经历了迅速扩张到缓慢增长的过程,贸易网络日益复杂化;1990—2020年世界粮食贸易网络连通性增强,各个国家(地区)之间的联系趋于紧密,呈现“抱团化”趋势;玉米、水稻、小麦三大主粮贸易的核心出口国(地区)变化不大,而核心进口国(地区)波动性较强;中国在出口贸易中拥有众多合作伙伴,是世界粮食安全的重要保障之一,在进口贸易中,贸易集中度高(尤其是玉米),对贸易伙伴的依赖性较强。【结论】利用国际粮食贸易补充与保障中国粮食市场时,应充分考虑世界粮食贸易网络的复杂性及未来发展趋势。

【Objective】Under the background of dual circulation,exploring the development pattern and trend of world grain trade will help China make a reasonable prediction of the international grain trade market,and then more effectively ensure China's food security.【Method】Based on the world trade data of maize,rice and wheat from 1990 to 2020,the world food trade network model is constructed by using the complex network analysis method,and the pattern and trend of world food trade are analyzed by using the complex network related measurement indicators.【Result】In the past 31 a,the world food trade network has experienced a process from rapid expansion to slow growth,and the trade network has become increasingly complex.From 1990 to 2020,the connectivity of the world food trade network was enhanced,and the links between countries(regions) tended to be closer,showing a “cluster” trend.The core exporting countries(regions) of maize,rice and wheat trade have little change,while the core importing countries(regions) have strong volatility.China has many partners in export trade,which is one of the important guarantees of world food security.In import trade,China has a high degree of trade concentration(especially maize) and a strong dependence on trading partners.【Conclusion】When using international grain trade to supplement and safeguard China's grain market,we should fully consider the complexity of the world grain trade network and the future development trend.