开发区设立与地方财政可持续性:财力巩固还是经济保障?

Establishment of development zones and local fiscal sustainability:fiscal resources consolidation or economic security?

县级财政可持续性关系我国基层政府治理能力。在测度并分析我国县级财政可持续性的负向和正向指标的基础上,运用双重差分法(DID)考察开发区设立对县级财政可持续性的影响。结果表明:省级开发区设立通过投资与消费驱动对县级财政可持续性具有经济保障效应,在此基础上的经济集聚会产生财力巩固效应,两类效应均有滞后性;同样也增加了县级债务和支出缺口风险而有不利影响。并对县级财政可持续性和开发区建设提出政策建议。

Achieving the county-level fiscal sustainability is related to the local government's governance capacity.This paper first measures and analyses the negative and positive indicators of the county-level fiscal sustainability in China,and then examines the impacts of the establishment of development zones on the county-level fiscal sustainability by utilizing the difference-in-difference method(DID).Research Findings:The construction of provincial development zones has economically secured the fiscal sustainability of counties through investment and consumption drive.The economic agglomeration on this basis has exerted a consolidating effect on the county-level fiscal resources.Both effects show a hysteresis quality.The construction of provincial development zones also demonstrates its adverse impacts in increasing the risks of county-level debt and expenditure gap.This paper will provide some policy suggestions for strengthening the county-level fiscal sustainability and constructing the provincial development zones.