森林火灾经济损失及人员伤亡时空分布特征研究

Temporal and spatial distribution of economic losses and casualties of forest fires in China

为了解我国森林火灾经济损失及人员伤亡时空分布特征,减少森林火灾带来的危害,采用统计分析与相关分析相结合的方法,对1999-2018年森林火灾相关数据进行分析。结果表明:从年际分布角度看,经济损失整体呈波动变化的趋势;人员伤亡整体呈波动下降的趋势,并与火灾次数之间呈显著正相关关系。从月际分布角度看,经济损失每年2-5月较高,并与火灾次数之间呈极显著正相关关系;人员伤亡每年2-4月居多,并与火灾次数之间呈极显著正相关关系。从区域分布角度看,我国经济损失整体呈现出“南方多北方少”的特征;人员伤亡西南地区最多,东北地区最少,并与火灾次数之间呈极显著正相关关系。从省域角度看,经济损失较多的省份主要集中在福建、四川、湖南、黑龙江等地;人员伤亡较多的省份主要集中在南方地区,特别是云南、湖南、贵州、浙江等地。

In order to understand the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of forest fire economic losses and human casualties in China and reduce the harm caused by forest fires,the data related to forest fires from 1999 to 2018 were analyzed by combining statistical analysis and correlation analysis.The results show that from the perspective of annual distribution,the economic losses show a trend of fluctuation.The overall casualties showed a trend of fluctuation and decline,and there was a significant positive correlation with the number of fires.From the perspective of monthly distribution,economic losses are higher in February to May each year,and there is a significant positive correlation between economic losses and fire frequency.Most of the casualties were from February to April each year,and there was a significant positive correlation between the number of fires.From the perspective of regional distribution,our economic losses show the characteristics of"more in the south and less in the north".The casualties were the most in southwest China and the least in northeast China,and there was a significant positive correlation between the number of fires.From the provincial perspective,the provinces with more economic losses are mainly concentrated in Fujian,Sichuan,Hunan,Heilongjiang and other places.Most of the casualties occurred in southern China,especially Yunnan,Hunan,Guizhou and Zhejiang provinces.