火灾对我国家庭财产保险需求影响的实证研究

An empirical study on the impact of fire on the demand of family property insurance in China

家庭财产保险是我国财产保险的“老三险”之一,随着我国经济社会的发展,家庭财富得到巨大的提升,但家财险的发展一直受到抑制,没有起到防灾减灾的作用。通过最初的火灾保险理念和保险学理论以及计量经济学方法来分析家财险需求的影响因子,通过多元线性回归模型及稳健性检验,发现采用时间个体双固定模型来解释我国家财险需求更为合适,其中火灾直接经济损失、居民人均可支配收入和常住人口对家财险需求产生显著正向影响,商业车险占比对家财险需求产生显著负向影响,保险价格、地区生产总值和人均住房面积对家财险需求影响不显著。其中,火灾直接经济损失对保费收入的产出弹性为0.13。

Family property insurance is one of the"old three risks"of China's property insurance.Although the family wealth has been greatly improved with the development of China's economy and society,the development of family property insurance has been suppressed and has not played a role in disaster prevention and mitigation.This paper analyzes the influence factors of property insurance demand through the initial fire insurance concept,insurance theory and econometric method.Through the multiple linear regression model and robustness test,it is found that it is more appropriate to use the time individual double fixed model to explain the property insurance demand of China,in which the direct economic loss of fire,the per capita disposable income of residents and the resident population have a significant positive impact on the property insurance demand.The proportion of commercial automobile insurance has a significant negative impact on the demand for home property insurance,while the insurance price,GDP and per capita housing area have no significant impact on the demand for home property insurance.Among them,the output elasticity of direct economic loss of fire to premium income is 0.13.