汇率“以邻为壑”效应:总出口额及其二元边际视角

Beggar-Thy-Neighbor Effects of Exchange Rates on Chinese Exports:A Dual Margin Approach

在各国汇率联动、进口市场竞争风险来源多样化的背景下,本文基于2002—2011年中国海关总署的企业数据,并进一步匹配国际清算银行的有效汇率权重,将竞争国汇率和双边汇率纳入统一分析框架,重点探讨了竞争国汇率对中国出口额及其二元边际的影响。研究发现:竞争国汇率的“以邻为壑”效应显著存在,但较之于企业的平均出口额,即集约边际,这种效应主要通过对出口企业群体数目,即扩展边际的调节来实现;增强汇率波动弹性的改革、世界贸易组织成员和出口产品类别同质化下,竞争国汇率对产品出口额的影响更大,且该影响仅表现在对出口企业群体更大的优胜劣汰影响上。

In the global markets, exchange rates are in constant fluctuation and risks of competitions in the import markets become diversified. Give such context, the study analyzes data from China General Administration of Customs and Bank for International Settlements, tries to incorporate the competitors’ exchange rates(CERs) and bilateral exchange rates into a unified analysis framework and discusses the impact of the CERs on China’ s export value and the role of extensive and intensive margins in export.The study finds that it is possible to find a significant beggar-thy-neighbor effect of the CERs. However,compared with the average export values of companies(intensive margin), the effect is mainly achieved by adjusting the number of exporting companies(extensive margin). When the RMB exchange rate elasticity is enhanced, export destinations belong to WTO members and the exporting product categories are homogenized, the influence of the CERs on the export value will be enlarged, and the effect is only reflected in the greater survival-of-the-fittest impact on the exporting companies.