贸易战、风险敞口与中间品进口

Trade War, Risk Exposures, and Imports of Intermediate Goods

基于2017—2019年中国进口产品数据和美对华加征的出口关税数据,采用多时点双重差分法评估美对华贸易战如何影响中国的中间品进口。研究发现:随着中美争端程度加深,关税冲击的负面影响会逐渐显现。第三、第四轮产品关税中,美对华加征的出口关税对中国从美国的中间品进口产生了显著负向影响;同时,这种关税冲击促使中国增加了从欧盟和“一带一路”沿线国家的中间品进口,即贸易战促使中国对这些国家产生了正向的进口转移效应。进一步研究出口与中间品进口在供应链上的密切关联发现,产品面临的出口关税风险敞口越大,中间品进口增速的下降幅度越大。

Based on the data of China’s imports from 2017 to 2019 and export tariffs imposed by the United States on China,the multi-point difference-in-differences method is used to evaluate how Sino-US trade war affects China’s imports of intermediate goods.The study finds out that as the Sino-US dispute deeps,the negative impact of the tariff shock gradually appears.In the third and fourth rounds of product tariffs,the export tariffs imposed by the United States on China had a significant negative impact on China’s imports of intermediate goods from the United States.At the same time,this tariff shock has prompted China to increase its imports of intermediate goods from the European Union and countries along the“Belt and Road”,that is,the trade war has prompted China to have a positive import diversion effect on these countries.Further study of close relationship between exports and imports of intermediate goods in the supply chain has found that the more the product is exposed to export tariffs,the faster the growth rate of intermediate goods imports falls.