中国对“一带一路”沿线国家OFDI贸易效应研究

Research on the Trade Effect of China's OFDI to Countries Along the Belt and Road

随着“一带一路”倡议的深入推进,中国对“一带一路”沿线国家的直接投资与贸易规模持续增加。为探究中国对沿线国家直接投资与贸易之间的内在联系,运用扩展的贸易引力模型,利用60个沿线国家在2003-2018年间的面板数据进行实证分析。基准回归结果表明,中国对“一带一路”沿线国家对外直接投资与贸易呈正向关系,稳健性检验强化了这一结论;机制检验显示,东道国经济发展水平抑制了中国OFDI的贸易促进效应,而东道国自然资源禀赋与对外开放水平显著提升了中国OFDI的正向贸易效应。

With the promotion of the"Belt and Road"initiative,China's direct investment and trade with countries along the"Belt and Road"have continued to increase.In order to explore the internal relationship between China's foreign direct investment and trade in countries along the route,the expanded trade gravity model is used to conduct empirical analysis using panel data of 60 countries along the route from 2003 to 2018.The benchmark regression results show that there is a positive relationship between China's foreign direct investment and trade in countries along the"the Belt and Road",and the robustness test strengthens this conclusion;The mechanism test shows that the economic development level of the host country inhibits the trade promotion effect of China's OFDI,while the natural resource endowment and opening-up level of the host country significantly enhance the positive trade effect of China's OFDI.