乡村振兴战略下互联网发展对粮食生产的影响——来自中国省际面板数据的证据

The Impact of Internet Development on Grain Production under the Rural Revitalization Strategy--Evidence from China s Provincial Panel Data

在深入阐述互联网发展之于粮食生产作用机制的基础上,构建2006—2019年中国31个省(自治区、直辖市)的面板数据模型,从多维视角实证检验互联网发展对中国粮食生产的影响。研究发现:从总体效应讲,互联网发展可显著促进中国粮食生产;从动态效应讲,互联网发展的粮食增产效应短期并不稳定,长期将稳步释放;从产区分异看,互联网发展对粮食主产区、主销区及平衡区均产生显著的粮食增产效应,且主产区的粮食增产效应最大;从技术分异看,互联网技术的粮食增产效应小于化肥技术,农业机械技术则并不具备显著的粮食增产效应。由此,可得到如下政策启示:一是稳步扩大互联网基础设施投资规模,优化投资方向,深入推进“互联网+粮食”行动;二是合理配置不同类型技术资金,逐步释放互联网信息技术的粮食增产效应;三是注重开展互联网信息技术培训,提升涉粮主体信息技术应用能力。

On the basis of in-depth exposition of the mechanism of Internet development on grain production,a panel data model of 31 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government)in China from 2006 to 2019 is constructed to empirically test the impact of Internet development on the grain production in China from a multi-dimensional perspective.The study found that:in terms of the overall effect,the development of the Internet can significantly promote China s grain production;in terms of dynamic effect,the effect of increasing grain production of Internet development is unstable in the short term and will be released steadily in the long term;in terms of differentiation of producing areas,the development of the Internet has a significant effect on grain production in the main grain-producing area,main selling area and balance area,and the effect of increasing grain production in the main grain-producing area is the greatest.In terms of technological differentiation,the effect of grain yield-increase from Internet technology is less than that from chemical fertilizer technology,while agricultural machinery technology does not have a significant effect on grain yield-increase.Therefore,the following policy implications can be obtained:first,steadily expand the scale of investment in Internet infrastructure,optimize the direction of investment,and further promote the“Internet Plus Grain”action;Second,rationally allocate different types of technological funds,gradually release the effect of grain yield-increase from Internet information technology;Third,pay attention to carrying out Internet information technology and training to enhance the ability of the grain-related subjects in the information technology application.