京津冀协同推进碳达峰碳中和路径研究

Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Coordinated Development toward the Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality Goals

京津冀地区是我国能源消耗、碳排放的集聚区,研究区域内碳达峰、碳中和的推进举措,对实现高质量的区域协同发展至关重要。本文构建了考虑京津冀地区特征的长期能源替代规划系统模型(LEAP-BTH),设置了基准情景、低碳情景、协同情景等主要情景以及8个子情景,完成了2021—2060年京津冀地区相应发展路径的预测分析。结果表明:在基准情景下,京津冀地区能源需求将持续增长,2060年北京市、天津市、河北省的碳排放量分别下降为2020年的41%、40%、53%,实现碳中和目标面临较大挑战;在低碳情景下,2060年北京市、天津市、河北省的碳排放量分别下降为2020年的20%、26%、46%,相比碳中和目标仍有一定差距;在协同情景下,2060年北京市、天津市、河北省的碳排放量分别下降为2020年的13%、15%、21%,能够基本实现碳中和目标。研究建议,京津冀三省市需针对各自的重点减排部门和路径,提出更明确、更严格的应对措施,如北京市重点推动交通、建筑部门的低碳转型,天津市、河北省着力开展可再生能源替代与工业绿色升级;优化顶层设计,挖掘区域内工业、能源、交通等部门的协同发展潜力,重点推动产业协同升级和能源协同发展,据此支撑京津冀地区的“双碳”工作和高质量发展。

The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH) region is intensive in energy consumption and carbon emission.Under the constraint of the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals,it is significant to analyze the coordinated development policies that synergistically promote low-carbon economic and social transformation in the BTH region.A long-range energy alternatives planning system(LEAP)-BTH model is constructed considering the characteristics of the BTH region,to analyze the energy demand and carbon emission of the region from 2021 to 2060.Three scenarios are considered,namely baseline scenario,low-carbon scenario,and coordinated scenario,and eight sub-scenarios are taken into account.The results indicate that:(1) In the baseline scenario,the energy demand in the BTH region will continue to grow,and the carbon emissions of Beijing,Tianjin,and Hebei in 2060 will decrease to 41%,40%,and 53% of that in 2020,respectively,facing great challenges for achieving carbon neutrality.(2) In the low-carbon scenario,the carbon emissions of Beijing,Tianjin,and Hebei in 2060 will decrease to 20%,26%,and 46% of that in 2020,respectively,and the BTH region will still not be carbon neutral.(3) In the coordinated scenario,the carbon emissions of Beijing,Tianjin,and Hebei in 2060 will decrease to 13%,15%,and 21% of that in 2020,respectively,thus achieving carbon neutrality.Several suggestions were further proposed.Beijing,Tianjin,and Hebei should adopt clearer and stricter policies for their key emission reduction sectors and measures.For example,Beijing should promote low-carbon transition in its transportation and construction sectors,while Tianjin and Hebei should promote renewable energy alternatives and low-carbon industrial upgrading.Top-level design should be optimized to fully tap the potentials for coordinated development of industry,energy,transportation,and other sectors,with the focus on promoting coordinated industrial upgrading and coordinated energy development.